FX.co ★ Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for November 18, 2022

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has been seen extending the rally of the wave A to the upside as a part of the ABC-X-ABC complex corrective structure. The bulls has hit the level of 1.0480 which is a technical resistance level and keeps consolidating the recent gains in a narrow range above the upper channel line. In a case of the rally continuation, the next target for bulls is seen at 161% Fibonacci extension located at 1.0523, which is only 43 pips away from the last local high. The nearest technical support is seen at 1.0255 and 1.0293 (tested already). The strong and positive momentum supports the short-term bullish outlook for EUR on the H4 time frame chart despite the market coming off the extremely overbought conditions.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.04281

WR2 - 1.03762

WR1 - 1.03509

Weekly Pivot - 1.03243

WS1 - 1.02990

WS2 - 1.02724

WS3 - 1.02205

Trading Outlook:

The EUR had made a new multi-decade low at the level of 0.9538, so as long as the USD is being bought all across the board, the down trend will continue towards the new lows. In the mid-term, the key technical resistance level is located at 1.0389 and only if this level is clearly violated, the down trend might be considered terminated. Please notice, there is plenty of room to the downside for the EUR to go, all of the potential technical support level are very old and might not be much reliable anymore.

Please be aware, that any sustained breakout below the technical support seen at 0.9737 will extend the down move even more and will put the level of 0.9669 in view. In the longer term, the key technical resistance level is located at 1.0389 (swing high from August 11th), so the bulls still have a long road to take before the down trend reversal is confirmed. It looks like the simple corrective ABC cycle might evolve into more complex and time consuming ABC-X-ABC cycle.