FX.co ★ Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 01/14/2022

Given what the forecasts were according to US statistics, it is quite logical to expect the pound's succeeding growth. Which is basically what happened. That's just what happened at the opening of the European trading session, whereas during the US one, the pound even slightly declined. Although the scale of this very decline was purely symbolic. Which, taking into account the actual data, looks very, very strange, and rather only confirms that the market still cannot get rid of the excessive speculative component. After all, US statistics turned out to be noticeably better than forecasts. Initial applications for unemployment benefits came out slightly worse than forecasts, as their number increased by 23,000. They predicted an increase of only 8,000. But that's where the negativity ends. At the same time, it is completely offset by repeated applications, the number of which has decreased by 194,000. This in itself is an incredibly large-scale change. Moreover, they were waiting for a growth of 7,000. In other words, the data on the labor market were extremely positive. In addition, the producer price index, which was supposed to be 9.8%, was at 9.7%. Moreover, it did not grow, but decreased, since the previous data was revised from 9.6% to 9.8%. It can be seen that absolutely all the data came out completely different from what was expected, which apparently confused market participants, who now need to reassess the situation somewhat. Most likely, it was for this reason that the market was marking time during the release of US statistics.

Number of repeated applications for unemployment benefits (United States):

But what did not happen yesterday after the release of US macroeconomic statistics, can happen today, when British statistics are published. The fact is that in the United Kingdom, the growth rate of industrial production is expected to slow down from 1.4% to 0.7%. And if we take into account that the economy of the eurozone has still not recovered from the consequences of 2020, then such weak data on industry look absolutely terrifying. It is clear that this is a consequence of the energy crisis that has covered the European continent. But somehow it doesn't get any easier.

Industrial Production (UK):

But the pound's sadness will not last long, because after the opening of the US trading session, it may well resume its growth. At least that's the conclusion that can be drawn from the forecasts for retail sales in the United States, which will be published today. But their growth rates should slow down from 18.2% to 17.0%. The decline in consumer activity, which is the main locomotive of the American economy, is quite enough for the dollar to continue to lose its positions.

Retail Sales (United States):

The GBPUSD currency pair has been following an upward scenario for the third consecutive week, where speculative interest has already led to quite large-scale price changes in the market. So the pound strengthened by 550, which led to the recovery of the exchange rate relative to the downward trend by more than 50%.

The overbought signal has been repeatedly exposed to the RSI technical instrument in the four-hour period, but speculators ignore it in vain. Thus, the current movement was reclassified as inertial.

Expectations and prospects:

The upward movement is still considered as the main one in the market, despite the signals of a possible change of trading interests. So a new round of growth in the volume of long positions will occur at the time when the price stays at 1.3750. This step will lead to a movement towards the main resistance level of 1.3800, in the area of which the upward tact is expected to slow down and the price will enter the correction stage.

Complex indicator analysis gives a buy signal based on short-term, intraday and medium-term periods due to the inertial upward movement.