FX.co ★ Crypto market update for January 5, 2021

Bitcoin shows no movement in the early days of 2022. The quotes sharply remain around the level of $ 46930, which corresponds to 50.0% on the lower Fibonacci grid. However, this level is not too important, unlike the 38.2% level on the higher Fibonacci grid, which the markets failed to break through on December 27. At the moment, the formation of the supposed wave b, which we have been waiting for a long time, looks quite complete. Three waves are perfectly visible inside it, so the instrument may further fall from the current levels as part of the future wave c formation. However, wave b can still take on a more extended form, for example, five-wave. But despite the opinion of most analysts who believe that Bitcoin's price will increase forever and constantly, we think that the world's main currency will still continue to decline early this year. This option can only be hindered by a strong news background in favor of Bitcoin or the entire cryptocurrency market. But so far, there is no important news. There are only forecasts, expectations, and opinions.

• What do Bitcoin forecasts for the second half of 2021 look like?

Many investors, billionaires, and cryptocurrency experts have given a huge number of predictions several times. Some prefer to indicate the date of the forecast, while some do not. Now, let's recall all the most high-profile recent forecasts and analyze how many of them came true in the end. First on the list are the predictions of Ton Weiss and Bloomberg chief strategist Mike McGlone, who expected to see Bitcoin at $ 100,000 by the end of last year or early new year. It is easy to guess that these predictions did not come true. At the same time, an analyst from the well-known PlanB predicted $ 98,000 per bitcoin by the end of the year.

On the other hand, Robert Kiyosaki expected to see the cryptocurrency market (and others) plunge in November 2021. Kiyosaki said twice that the financial markets would collapse, but did not specify a time frame. A popular analyst Willy Woo also voiced his opinion, who believed that the correction was completed in November, and Bitcoin was ready to return to the upward trend. However, all these predictions from very well-known and respected people did not come true. Therefore, it is worth noting once again that the forecast of absolutely any expert should not be treated as something 100%.

The market is a collection of a huge number of players whose opinions and moods are influenced by global changes, the news background, the actions of governments and central banks. But what can we say, even recent tweets from Elon Musk could collapse Bitcoin by $ 10,000 or help it grow as much. In my opinion, everyone should have their own plan and forecast, and for now, we are still talking about the continuation of the formation of a downward trend section.

A new downward trend section of the trend continues to form, no matter who says what. At the moment, only one downward wave can be seen, and there should be at least two of them and a correctional wave between them. Therefore, we expect the instrument to decline to the last low, around the level of $ 41,500. The downward trend may end around it, but such a shortened third wave is rare. The instrument can be expected below this mark. Moreover, the supposed wave b may take on a more extended form than it is now, i.e. it can turn out five-wave, which also cannot be excluded completely. After the formation of the assumed wave c is done, everything will depend on the news background. If they are negative, then the entire downward trend may try to acquire an impulsive form. This will hinder Bitcoin to update its highs for quite some time.