FX.co ★ Will the Year of the Water Tiger be a better year for gold?

Gold is holding above the key level of $ 1,800 towards the end of the year, which has long been unreachable. However, the current year is expected to be the most unsuccessful year for gold since 2015.

The last week of the year reflects the behavior of gold over the past 12 months. The precious metal is moving in a narrow price range, not finding a strong impulse for growth or a convincing downward factor.

Yesterday, the yellow metal closed the session again above the psychologically important level of $1,800, which was broken last week due to increased concerns about the new COVID-19 strain.

However, it closed with a decline, as it could not fully recover the losses incurred during the trading day. The session low was $ 1,789.10. The reason for such collapse is the rise in the yield of US government bonds to an almost monthly high.

The US dollar's downward move helped gold to be above the key resistance level of $1,800 again. This weak currency restrained the yield pressure and pushed the yellow asset to $1,805.80. Therefore, the precious metal fell by $ 5.10, or 0.3% on Wednesday, compared to Tuesday, when its price rose by 0.1%.

Analysts believe that traders' profit-taking was another reason why gold declined yesterday. It can be recalled that the yellow asset gained 0.4% yesterday.

At the same time, investors' optimism that the Omicron strain will not do serious damage to the global economy next year is also a bearish factor for gold.

As fears about a new variant of the coronavirus weaken, the demand for risky assets is growing. In this regard, experts believe that gold trading is likely to remain weak and limited by a narrow range until the end of the week.

According to analysts, the yellow asset will end this year with a decline of almost 5%. This is the most significant annual drop in precious metals in 6 years.

The main factor that caused the weakening of gold quotes in 2021 is the upcoming tightening of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The prospect that the US regulator could take a more aggressive course supported the US dollar, which put pressure on gold.

Meanwhile, experts call it illogical that the specified precious metal could not benefit from the apparent acceleration of inflation in the United States. Gold is considered one of the best hedge tools against price increases, but inflationary pressure did not play in its favor this year. The record high price level forced the Fed to start reducing asset purchases faster in order to accelerate interest rate hikes.

Many investors were unhappy with the dynamics of gold in the past year, especially after last year's records. The movement of quotes was sometimes unpredictable and generally did not meet the expectations of traders.

This year's high was $ 1,957, which gold reached in May. The low was $ 1,680, where the quotes plummeted in March. At the same time, the average annual value was $ 1,790 - $ 1,810. This is slightly higher than the same indicator for the last year. After that, the average price was fixed at $ 1,770.

Summing up the results of the year, analysts note that gold has been moving uncertainly and mostly in a sideways trend for almost all 12 months due to uncertainty in the market. But this does not mean that the same picture will be seen in 2022.

Commodity strategist Vitaliy Manzhos predicts gold to rise in the first quarter of the coming year amid a significant increase in the value of monetary gold. He expects the price to reach $ 2,000 in 2022 and does not exclude that the precious metal will update its all-time high in the future, reaching the level of $ 2,090. However, this will take several months.

Meanwhile, most experts are still negative towards the yellow asset. It is believed that the Fed's triple rate hike, which is scheduled for next year, will lead to a sharp decline in demand for gold and a fall in their value.

Experts even joke about the coming year, which will be patronized by a Black or Blue Water Tiger, which they believe will obviously not bring gold anything good since it is not in the color scheme of the precious metal. They hint that black and blue are the colors of coal and gas. Therefore, the outgoing year can still be called relatively successful for the yellow asset.