FX.co ★ USD/JPY analysis and outlook for December 27, 2021

The US dollar has been trading extremely volatile recently. A week of gains is followed by a week of declines in the US currency against major competitors and vice versa. The USD/JPY pair, on the other hand, has probably not followed such a pattern lately. Let's take a look at the USD/JPY charts. And let's start with the weekly timeframe.

Weekly

After the outlined bearish candlestick with a long upper shadow, it was quite possible to assume that the bullish trend of USD/JPY was over, and the quote would turn to the south. At first, this was the case, but later things changed. From the Fibonacci instrument chart, stretched from 102.60 to 115.54, we can see that the pair declined only to the level of 23.6 from this rally, after which it reversed northward again. This is a correction to the marked increase. However, the conclusions about the continuation of the uptrend in USD/JPY can be made only after the breakdown of the resistance level 115.54, where the maximum figures of the highlighted and potentially reversal candlestick were shown.

Until this candlestick and its shadow has not overlapped by growth, it is too early to make definite conclusions about the continuation of the bullish trend for the USD/JPY pair. The current and the last trading day of the year has started positively and the pair is showing a moderate strengthening. However, as long as the trading is below the most important psychological and technical level of 115.00, the issue of the further rally and testing the sellers' resistance at 115.54 is still on the table. Also, last week's close above the red Tenkan line should be credited to the bulls. This factor should strengthen the bullish sentiment on this instrument. To confirm the trend reversal and implement the downside scenario, bears need to break support at 112.55 and consolidate further trading below this level.

Daily

Although today's Japanese retail sales data was stronger than expected, it did not provide the Japanese currency with the necessary support. As it has been mentioned before, it has ignored the macroeconomic data from Japan, but it is very sensitive to important US data and events regarding decisions and comments from the US Federal Reserve. Today's Japanese retail sales data confirmed this trend once again.

After Friday's bearish candlestick, which could well be a reversal indicator, USD/JPY is rising sharply and is already trading well above Friday's highs. Turning to the trading recommendations for the USD/JPY pair, the situation is extremely interesting and at the same time not quite certain yet. To open sell trades, you need to wait for the appearance of reversal candlestick patterns on this or smaller charts, which may appear in the strong technical resistance zone of 115.00-115.50. Purchases, in my opinion, are better considered at lower prices, after short-term corrective pullbacks to the 114.60/50 area. It is likely that this week we will examine the technical picture of USD/JPY again, where the smaller time frames will be analyzed.