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Hi, dear traders!
On December 20-24, EUR/USD managed to rise despite the hawkish policy tilt of the Federal Reserve and the deteriorating COVID-19 situation in Europe. Last week's US economic data failed to give support to the US dollar, even though some data releases were quite positive. Nevertheless, the Fed's intentions to wind down QE have long been priced in by the market, as mixed economic data increase trader uncertainty.
The new Omicron strain of COVID-19 has been highly detrimental to the tourism sector. Air travel has been thrown into disarray due to an upsurge of infections among airline pilots and flight crews. On Christmas Eve, more than 2,000 flights were cancelled worldwide.
This week's economic calendar is light, largely dominated by data releases in the US. On Tuesday, several US house price reports will be released, followed by the Fed Richmond manufacturing index data.
Weekly
EUR/USD has remained in the 1.1360-1.1223 range for the third straight week, as indicated by the weekly chart. The first Fibonacci retracement level of the 1.1909-1.1187 range has stumped bullish traders. Now, the main goals for bears are breaking below 1.1223 and testing the significant support at 1.1187. Bulls would have to surpass the key technical level of 1.1360 and break through 1.1383.
Daily
As we can see on the daily chart, the pair remains in the highlighted range. Due to the very small bodies of the candlesticks, further trajectory of EUR/USD is unclear. The pair has found support in the red Tenkan-Sen and the blue Kijun-Sen lines of the Ichimoku cloud, and could still rise towards 1.1360 and 1.1383. After a breakout above 1.1383, EUR/USD would encounter the strong level of 1.1400. The quote's further trend would be determined by its performance near this level. Traders are advised to watch for buy signals in the 1.1345-1.1380 area. Opening short positions could be considered depending on the pair's performance in the 1.1230-1.1190 price range.
Good luck!