FX.co ★ Forecast for USD/JPY on December 23, 2021

Yesterday, the USD/JPY pair closed at the opening level, but the upper shadow updated the signal level to 114.38, more precisely, we are correcting this level according to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, as noted on the daily chart. In general, the situation does not change, since the price develops in a local rising price channel, the exit from which can be in any direction. Despite the S&P 500's growth by 1.02% from yesterday, we do not rely heavily on the so-called pre-New Year rally in stock markets, as in recent years it has acquired only a nominal character. A fall in stock indices can be, and with it a fall in the USD/JPY pair.

But at the moment, on the daily scale chart, the price is above the MACD line, the probability of breaking the signal level of 114.38 with an attack on the upper limit of the channel at 114.64 is 70%. The Marlin Oscillator supports the rising option.

But further complications may arise. To develop further growth, the price must exit the channel - overcome the level of 114.64. In this case, the 115.80-116.15 target range will open. Returning to the area under the MACD line (113.96 - coinciding with the December 8 high and yesterday's low) will open the way for an attack on the lower boundary of the local price channel and further for an attack on the main support - the embedded price channel line of the monthly timeframe in the area of 113.23.

On the four-hour chart, the current situation is growing, the price is consolidating below the signal level of 114.38. The probability of growth, as already mentioned, is 70%, but you need to wait for confirming signals.