FX.co ★ EUR/USD wave analysis on December 20: Sideways risks continuing for few more weeks

The wave pattern of the H4 chart for the Euro/Dollar instrument continues to remain integral and does not require additions. The construction of a downward wave e in C is still questionable, although the markets regularly make attempts to resume the decline. And if this wave does not continue its construction, then wave C will have to be recognized as three-wave and completed.

The wave that originates on November 30 cannot be attributed now either to wave C or to the first wave of a new upward trend segment, if this is really it, since neither the peak of wave d in C nor the low of wave c in C has been broken in recent weeks. The movement of the instrument is almost horizontal and in the current situation, it remains only to wait for the development of the situation. And the supposed wave e (or, by the way, possibly d) in such a situation can take a very extended, horizontal form, which will only complicate the entire current wave pattern.

Christmas week has begun and markets can actively celebrate, rather than actively trade

There was no news background for the EUR/USD instrument on Monday. There will be an extremely small amount of news and economic reports this week in general. Thus, the markets will be forced, if they want, to withdraw the instrument from the sideways without the help of a news background. In a "thin" market, this is not such an impossible task.

If you look at how the instrument moved before the holidays in the past years, it was not always a sideways one. However, the fact remains that many participants in the foreign exchange market will leave it and that is why it will be much easier to move the instrument from its place. But this requires the desire of those who will stay on it.

This week, just a few reports will be interesting for the markets. I would especially pay attention to the reports on GDP, orders for long-term goods, as well as consumer sentiment and consumer confidence indices in the U.S. These data will be released on Wednesday and Thursday. However, these reports themselves do not always cause a reaction from the markets.

Meanwhile, no interesting reports and events are expected in Europe. Thus, the instrument may well be in the sideways trend all week. In such a situation, readers should decide for themselves whether they will try to work out the current wave pattern or will wait for the holidays to end and the markets to resume their usual work.

General conclusions

Based on the analysis, I conclude that the construction of the downward wave C can be completed. However, the internal wave structure of this wave still allows the construction of another downward, internal wave. Thus, I advise selling the instrument with targets located around the 1.1152 mark, for each downward signal from the MACD, until there is a successful attempt to break the peak of wave d.

The wave pattern of the higher scale looks quite convincing. The decline in quotes continues and now the downward section of the trend, which originates on May 25, takes the form of a three-wave corrective structure A-B-C. Thus, the decline may continue for at least a few more weeks until wave C is fully completed (it should take a five-wave form in this case).