FX.co ★ Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 12/8/2021

If anyone needed proof that the market was completely disoriented and in complete prostration, the reaction to the data on GDP in the euro area was incredibly clear. The third assessment was in sharp contrast to the previous two, which showed a slowdown in economic growth from 14.4% to 3.7%. So, judging by the latest data, the rate of economic growth has slowed down to 3.9%. In other words, the eurozone economy is doing a little better than it was anticipated over the past few weeks, when they began to publish first the first and then the second GDP estimates. Undoubtedly, this is an extremely positive moment, which should have led to a noticeable strengthening of the single European currency. However, instead, it began to decline actively. Which is absurd in itself. Apparently realizing this fact, a rebound began a few hours later. Yes, such that in the end everything returned to its original values.

GDP change (Europe):

Today, the picture of the day will be largely similar, due to the release of data on open vacancies in the United States. And it is these data that will become an excellent reason not only for speculation, but also for a noticeable weakening of the dollar. The fact is that until now no one has deigned to revise the official forecast of 10,400,000 open vacancies. In the previous month, there were 10,438,000 of them. But the content of the report of the Ministry of Labor clearly indicates that these very vacancies will be noticeably less. That is, we can talk about a noticeable reduction in the number of open vacancies, which will be interpreted as a deterioration in the situation on the labor market. This is quite enough for a sharp weakening of the dollar. Nevertheless, the very fact of a decrease in the number of open vacancies does not contradict the logic of a strong decrease in the unemployment rate. On the contrary, it is a reflection of a significant improvement in the situation on the labor market. So after the initial outburst, which will be largely emotional in nature, the situation will quickly return to normal. That is, to the starting positions.

Job Openings (United States):

The EURUSD pair has slowed down the recovery cycle relative to the correctional movement in the area of the value of 1.1227. This led to a stop and, as a result, a reverse movement towards the level of 1.1300.

The technical instrument RSI in the hourly period first gave a signal that the euro was oversold at the moment when the 30 line was crossed. After that, a buy signal was received, which was confirmed when the 50 line was crossed from the bottom up.

On the daily chart, a downward trend remains, in the structure of which a correction cycle has emerged.

Expectations and prospects:

Speculative excitement has led to the formation of a V-shaped formation in the market, where the 1.1300 level serves as a resistance. So, in order for the subsequent growth in the volume of long positions to occur, the quote must stay above the value of 1.1310. Otherwise, stagnation may occur.

Comprehensive indicator analysis provides a buy signal based on short-term and intraday periods due to the recent bounce in price. In the medium term, technical instruments are oriented towards a downward trend, signaling a sell.