FX.co ★ Trading plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on December 7, 2021

In general, there is nothing surprising in the fact that the Euro currency is actually standing still. After all, the macroeconomic calendar is virtually empty. Nevertheless, the index of business activity in the construction sector was published, which increased from 51.2 points to 53.3 points. But with all due respect to it, this indicator does not even belong to the secondary, but rather to the third-rate indicators and, in principle, is not able to have at least some influence.

Construction PMI (Europe):

Theoretically, the pound should have behaved exactly the same as the euro, that is, to stand still. However, it was able to demonstrate moderate growth. But it's not about the index of business activity in the construction sector, which increased from 54.6 points to 55.5 points although it was expected to decrease to 54.2 points. The point is in the sales of new cars, the rate of decline of which was supposed to slow down from -24.6% to -12.0%. Instead, they showed an increase of 1.7% in annual terms.

In other words, the data really presented an unexpected surprise and was quite pleasant. Most importantly, they showed a clear increase in consumer activity, which is the driver of economic growth. This was the reason for the pound's growth.

New Car Sales (UK):

Today, it will be possible to move the pound from its place only if the Halifax data on housing prices differ too much from forecasts, whose growth rates are expected to slow down from 8.1% to 7.8%. In principle, the data are rather negative, since the housing market is very important for the British economy due to the fact that construction and real estate transactions account for at least a fifth of the entire economy of the United Kingdom. However, Halifax data cover only a part of the housing market, and it is difficult to call them so representative. They don't reflect the big picture and the changes are not expected to be so large-scale as to move the market from its place.

Halifax House Price Index (UK):

Strange enough, Eurozone's GDP data for the third quarter will not affect the market in any way. However, they should show that the growth rate of the European economy has slowed from 14.2% to 3.7%, which is a rather impressive slowdown that clearly should scare investors. The only thing is that the third assessment is being published today, which should coincide with the previous two. That is, market participants will not see anything new that could encourage them to make large-scale changes. In other words, we will continue to contemplate a clear stagnation today.

GDP change (Europe):

The EUR/USD pair partially restored the downward cycle relative to the correction course, but stagnation followed. It can be assumed that there will be a temporary amplitude within the level of 1.1300 with a deviation of 30 points, while the downward interest will continue to prevail in the market.

The GBP/USD pair is in the pullback stage from the area of the local low on November 30. As a result, the quote returned to the previously broken level of 1.3290, where there was a slight stagnation. Stable price retention below the level of 1.3290 may lead to a subsequent increase in the volume of short positions, which will open the way to a local low on November 30. Otherwise, the stagnation may be prolonged.