FX.co ★ Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on November 29. Detailed analysis of the pair's movement and trade deals. The euro's strangest growth

EUR/USD 5M

During the last trading day of the week, the EUR/USD pair showed a pretty strong and good move that was not based on... anything. Of course, to say so is not entirely correct, since practically nothing happens without a reason. But the pair has traveled about the same distances in recent times after the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve meetings, as well as after the super-powerful report on inflation in the United States. There was nothing interesting here on Friday, and was not even planned. Nevertheless, the euro managed to rise in price by 110 points. The most interesting thing is that on Friday morning, the next speech was by ECB President Christine Lagarde, who in recent weeks has been pouring "dove rhetoric" right and left. Therefore, it was a priori difficult to expect any support from it for the euro, but it was at this time that a strong movement of the euro/dollar pair began. As it turned out later, Lagarde did not report anything special. Lagarde still expects inflation to slow down next year, and after March 2022, the European economy will no longer need the PEPP program. However, as we all know, the ECB is going to expand the APP program. Well, maybe a little less soap. In general, the euro currency clearly did not have fundamental reasons for such a strong growth. Thus, the only reason could be profit taking by traders on short positions. In terms of trading, the day was disgusting. In the chart above, it is excellent that during the day only Kijun-sen and the extremum level of 1.1264 stood in the way of prices. And it was at this time that the pair began to jump from side to side, forming a ton of false signals. Unfortunately, there are such bad days. What trades should have been opened on Friday? Near the Kijun-sen line - a short positions and then a long position. A short position around the level of 1.1264, and then a long one. A total loss of 5-10 points was received for the first two trades. A small profit for the second two trades. Today we write so extensively, because all signals were very "fast", so much depended on where exactly traders opened and closed positions. But on the whole, the day turned out to be very unlucky, despite the strong movement. It was possible to make money only on the last buy signal.

EUR/USD 1H

The downward trend persists on the hourly timeframe, as the pair is still far from the trend line. Thus, champagne should not be opened on the new growth of the European currency. The price also has not yet managed to even work out the Senkou Span B line, which is also a strong line. Therefore, Friday's movement is good, but so far the prospects for the European currency are rather vague. On Monday, we highlight the following levels for trading - 1.1192, 1.1264, 1.1371, 1.1422, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.1355) and Kijun-sen (1.1238) lines. The Ichimoku indicator lines can change their position during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. Signals can be rebounds or breakthroughs of these levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price moves 15 points in the right direction. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. Not a single interesting event is planned in the European Union and the United States on November 29. Thus, the volatility may significantly decrease compared to Friday. But continued growth may mean that the markets are really tuned in to buy the European currency.

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Forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD for November 29. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trade deals.

Analysis of the COT report

The mood of non-commercial traders changed quite significantly during the last reporting week (November 9-15). A group of non-commercial traders opened 7,000 buy contracts (longs) and 20,500 sell contracts (shorts) during the week. Thus, the net position for professional traders decreased by 13,500, and the mood became more "bearish". It should be noted that the European currency has dropped quite seriously over the past few weeks. But the net position for the "non-commercial" group, starting from October, practically does not change. This is signaled by the green line of the first indicator in the chart above. Almost all this time, it has been near the zero level, indicating the absence of serious changes in the mood of major players. Thus, if the general trend remains the same - over the past ten months, large players have seriously reduced the number of longs and increased the number of shorts, then in the past few weeks nothing of the kind has been observed, and the European currency was still falling. This suggests that what is happening on the market now does not quite correspond to the actions of large players. The second indicator (the net position for professional traders in the form of a histogram) shows that in the last six weeks the mood of traders has become less bearish, that is, in theory, at this time the euro should have been growing, not falling. Thus, if we draw a conclusion only on the basis of the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports, then a further fall in the euro currency is completely unclear.

Explanations for the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.

Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.