FX.co ★ Powerful downtrend offset local bullish signals

Bitcoin's trend remains uncertain but it stabilizes after another price collapse that has scared the retail traders away. BTC is struggling amid Chinese sanctions and the mass migration of coins to Korean cryptocurrency exchanges. The digital asset is stuck inside a narrow range and the attempt to get out of it by consolidating above $44,000 was unsuccessful. After rebounding from the upper boundary of the support zone, the cryptocurrency continued to decline and formed a bearish candlestick with a long lower wick. Despite this, bitcoin is showing local bullish signals on the intraday time frame, but it is unclear would it be enough for a reversal.

Over the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency did not exceed the local consolidation area and kept quotations approximately in the same state as yesterday. Bitcoin is trading near key support located at $42,000 with daily trading volumes dropping to $29 billion as of 4:00 p.m. BTC continues the sideways movement. Local corridors of price barriers and selling areas prevent BTC from launching an upward movement. Bitcoin is locked in volumes, most of which are formed by the bears, which is noticeable when the price approaches the upper side of the range. The bulls' activity begins to increase around $40,000, which indicates a strategy of accumulation beyond the fluctuation range. There are no factors for a powerful breakout of the upper boundary of $44,000, because bulls want to go even lower, after which to start the rebound.

The 1-hour chart shows positive signals formed after a successful bullish breakout of the bearish triangle from September 27. After the breakout, the price went up, where it faced a strong resistance near $42,300. The bitcoin quotes are to break out the local ascending wedge, which promises a breaking of $42,000 and the subsequent decrease. Technical indicators support this forecast. The MACD indicator began to decrease in the red zone and go below the zero mark. The stochastic oscillator formed a bullish cross, but failed to gain momentum and began to fall. The bulls are trying to push the price above $42,000, which means recovery may begin. The RSI remains neutral and moves along 50.

The 4-hour chart also demonstrates a breakout of the bearish triangle from September 19 but this pattern continues to put pressure on the price. Bitcoin cannot develop a local momentum received from the breakout. This is a result of the fact that bitcoin is traded within the descending parallel channel, which adds more pressure on the trend. Technical indicators are showing weakened momentum created after the triangle breakout, but chances to exceed $43,500 remain.

The daily chart shows a bearish triangle from September 7. Bitcoin's sluggish attempt to break this pattern was unsuccessful. As a result, a bearish engulfing candlestick with a lower wick was formed on September 20, after which the price rebounded and moved into the stabilization stage with a local decline. Despite this, the technical indicators of BTC signal a possible upward reversal. The MACD indicator is close to forming a bullish cross, while RSI crossed 40 and continued the uptrend. Stochastic is also close to a bullish crossover, but it is too early to tell about the strength of the bullish momentum. If the price manages to break through $44,000 and consolidate there, the next target will be located at $46,300.

At a false breakdown of $44,000, the price will pull back to the narrow range aiming at breaking through $42,000 and going for the $40,000 retest. If a bearish breakdown occurs the fluctuation range will move to the area of $40,000-$38,000 and it will cancel the medium-term uptrend. While the price does not exceed $44,000, the current price swing cannot be considered as an uptrend.