FX.co ★ Trading plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on September 28

America's durable goods orders rose by 1.8%, which is much better than the 0.4% forecast. Therefore, fears about a decline in consumer activity clearly turned out to be groundless, and there is little threat to the further recovery of the US economy. However, we did not observe any growth of the dollar yesterday, rather, it slightly declined. The United States Senate is to blame for this, which blocked an automatic increase in the size of the national debt. In particular, the representatives of the Republican Party should be blamed, since this decision requires 60 votes, which the Democratic Party does not have.

Accordingly, the topic of a possible default is being raised again, which seems to have already become traditional. The same story unfolds almost every year. So until Thursday, Congress must develop a new budget plan, then the president must approve it, otherwise another shutdown with a temporary suspension of funding for a number of state institutions. After that, the budget will be adopted, and the public debt limit will be increased, but before that, American politicians will make the markets somewhat nervous. Today, the development of events in the market will depend on the ability of both parties to agree on the distribution of budget funds.

Durable Goods Orders (United States):

However, all this has nothing to do with the euro currency, for which the main topic was the results of the German elections and with not the best outcome. In fact, it's not about the results themselves, since the victory of the Social Democrats was previously considered the most likely development of events. We were surprised by the subsequent statements of the leader of the winning party about the need to switch the CDU/CSU to the opposition, although the party of Angela Merkel took second place.

Moreover, the alliance of these two parties lasted for almost two decades. This coalition itself is perceived as a guarantee of Germany's political and economic stability and so, the whole of Europe. In addition, the desire of the current finance minister, who will almost certainly become the next chancellor, to get rid of his former partners, generates a whole heap of uncertainties that frighten investors. Another thing is that the decline in the single European currency turned out to be purely symbolic as a result, since it was already held back by purely American problems.

The EUR/USD pair is marking time within the local low of August 20, trying to prolong the downward cycle to new price levels. Until market participants manage to stay below the level of 1.1660 on a daily timeframe, the risk of a natural price rebound remains.

The GBP/USD pair returned to the downward course after it failed to continue its growth. The price coordinate 1.3650 serves as a variable pivot point, where traders are currently targeting.