FX.co ★ Forecast for USD/JPY on September 28, 2021

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair's sharp growth in recent days in uncorrelation with other world currencies suggests that Japanese investors are selling off US government bonds, because the yen is now directly dependent on them: the yield on 10-year US government bonds has increased since September 23 from 1.30% to 1.48%. On 2-year securities, the yield on the 22nd soared from 0.218% to 0.307%. Probably, this is the reaction of investors to the problems with the US national debt. Hence the uncertainty - will the USD/JPY pair overcome the target level of 111.39, and will it reach it at all?

In case of success, that is, in case of overcoming the immediate resistance, the 112.22 target is open - the high of February 2020. If the price does not overcome the 111.39 level, which is already hinted at by the unfolding Marlin Oscillator, then it may return to the starting position of growth at 109.12.

Marlin indicates a gradual cooling of the market on the four-hour chart. Perhaps this is preparation for a downward reversal of the price, and possibly a small correction before further growth. The question will be resolved when the price crosses either above the resistance of 111.39, or below the support of 110.65 - below the embedded line of the price channel on the daily chart.