FX.co ★ EUR/USD: plan for the US session on September 22 (analysis of morning deals). Traders are waiting for an important decision on US monetary policy

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

It is not surprising that against the background of the lack of important fundamental statistics on the eurozone and before the meeting of the US Federal Reserve on monetary policy, the volatility of the EUR/USD pair leaves much to be desired. The low trading volume and the absence of movement did not allow us to reach the nearest levels, and respectively, no signals were formed to enter the market. Against this background, the technical picture remained almost unchanged. Only the nearest support and resistance levels were revised. In the middle of the US session, attention will be drawn to the eurozone's consumer confidence indicator report, which may decrease in September this year compared to the August value, putting even more pressure on the euro. A lot will also depend on the situation regarding the vote in the US Congress on raising the debt limit, which does not allow buyers of risky assets to build up long positions properly. The formation of a false breakdown at the level of 1.1718, which was revised from the level of 1.1706, forms a signal to open long positions against the trend, counting on an upward correction to the first resistance of 1.1748. A break of this range and its reverse test from top to bottom will form an additional entry point into long positions already in the continuation of the euro's growth with an update of the maximum of 1.1776, where I recommend fixing the profits. A more distant target will be the area of 1.1806. Under the scenario of a decline in EUR/USD in the afternoon and the lack of activity around 1.1718, and weak data on consumer confidence, you can open long positions in EUR/USD after a false breakdown in the area of 1.1692. However, I advise buying EUR/USD immediately for a rebound only at the minimum of 1.1665, or even lower - in the area of 1.1628, counting on an upward correction of 15-20 points within the day.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

The bears will count on the meeting of the Federal Reserve System and the news on the reduction of the bond purchase program. It may lead to a weakening of the positions of risky assets. However, a condition must be met: the program will be curtailed earlier than December of this year, as well as quite large volumes. If this does not happen, we will likely see a rise in the euro in the second half of the day. Only the formation of a false breakout in the area of 1.1748 will lead to the formation of the first entry point into short positions to reduce the pair within the day. The next target of the bears will be a breakout and consolidation below the support of 1.1718. A reverse test of this level from the bottom up will pressure the pair and form an additional signal to sell the euro with an update of the minimum of 1.1692. A more distant target will be the area of 1.1665, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of EUR/USD growth during the US session and the absence of bears at the level of 1.1748, it is best to postpone sales until the test of a larger resistance of 1.1776. I advise you to sell the pair immediately for a rebound based on a downward correction of 15-20 points only from the new maximum of 1.1806.

The COT report (Commitment of Traders) for September 14 recorded a reduction in long and short positions. All this is a consequence of the wait-and-see attitude of traders in the early autumn of this year when the Federal Reserve System can shed light on its further monetary policy. A lot will now depend on how the US authorities solve the problem of the national debt limit, which is already putting pressure on stock markets, returning demand for the US dollar, which harms risky assets. This week, the situation on this issue should somehow become clearer. The demand for risky assets is also limited due to the high probability of another wave of the spread of the coronavirus and its new Delta strain. All this will force the European Central Bank to continue to adhere to a wait-and-see position and maintain a stimulating policy at current levels, which limits the upward potential of the EUR/USD pair. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions decreased from 189,904 to the level of 186,554, while short non-commercial positions decreased from the level of 163,596 to the level of 158,749. At the end of the week, the total non-commercial net position rose slightly to 27,805 from 26,308. The weekly closing price fell from 1.1870 to 1.1809.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted in the area of 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Note: The author considers the period and prices of moving averages on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

The low volatility of the pair does not give signals to enter the market based on the indicator.

Description of indicators

• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence/divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
• Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet specific requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.