FX.co ★ Analysis for GBP/USD on September 17.

For the pound/dollar pair, the wave markup currently looks quite convincing. However, in the near future, it may require adjustments and additions. The third unsuccessful attempt to break through the mark of 1.3873, which is equal to 23.6% according to Fibonacci, again led to a departure of quotes from the reached highs. However, wave c still does not look fully completed. Thus, as I said earlier, I expect the resumption of the construction of this wave and the increase in the quotes of the instrument. A successful attempt to break through the 23.6% Fibonacci level will indicate the markets' readiness for new purchases of the instrument, which is required for the instrument at this time. Since this is not yet the case, I recommend resuming purchases of the instrument after receiving confirmation that wave c continues its construction. The targets of wave c can be located between the peak of wave a and the level of 1.4239. I don't see any reasons to make any changes to the current wave pattern yet.

The exchange rate of the pound/dollar instrument moved quite calmly during Friday. However, in the second half of the day, it began to sink very much. The losses are already about 50 basis points, but the decline may be much stronger before the end of the day. The news background has nothing to do with the current movement of the instrument. In the morning, a report on retail trade in August was released in the UK, which turned out to be significantly lower than market expectations. However, the pound felt quite well in the first half of the day and even grew a little. The decline in quotes began in the afternoon when there were no important events and economic reports. Thus, I believe that the reasons also lie in the future meeting of the Fed and the markets' expectations. The markets may well buy the dollar on the expectations of Jerome Powell's statement about the end of the QE program. Many analysts believe that this statement may be made not in September but in November or December. However, it is important what the markets themselves think about this and not analysts. Thus, the construction of the assumed wave c may break off. And even not the news background, but the markets' expectations can lead to a violation of the current wave markup. In such a situation, you only need to wait for the Fed meeting and confirm the option of moving the instrument, which is still working. That is, a successful attempt to break through the 23.6% Fibonacci level. But I think it is dangerous to sell the instrument since it is completely unclear whether the dollar will receive real support from the Fed next week.

The wave pattern is now more or less clear. I still expect to build an ascending wave, so at this time, I suggest considering buying the instrument for each MACD signal "up" with targets located near the mark of 1.4000 (the first goal). The tool began building a new internal correction wave c. Thus, I recommend waiting for a successful attempt to break through the 23.6% Fibonacci level before resuming purchases of the instrument.

The upward section of the trend, which began its construction a couple of months ago, has taken a rather ambiguous form and has already been completed. A new section of the trend can get an impulse form. Its first wave has acquired a sufficiently extended form and exceeded the peaks of waves b and d. The chances of a new strong increase in quotes remain quite high.