FX.co ★ Wave analysis of EUR/USD for September 17. Furious dollar

The wave counting of the 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD currency pair remains the same. The pair has been moving more actively in the last couple of days, which leads to a complication of wave b. This is very bad for the current wave counting since wave b has already turned out to be quite deep compared to wave a. Therefore, a further decline will mean that the corrective wave as part of the next correction section of the trend may end near the low of wave a. In addition, the entire downward section of the trend may resume its construction, which will significantly complicate the wave counting. While I do not believe in this scenario, the decline in the quotes today makes us treat it carefully. Interestingly, the US currency could not develop an increase for a long time, but yesterday and today, when there were no special reasons for this, it is growing by leaps and bounds. Thus, the news background may interfere with the execution of the current wave plan.

The news background for the EUR/USD pair was practically absent on Friday. The markets barely paid attention to the inflation report in the eurozone, which coincided with markets' expectations at 3.0% YoY. Meanwhile, the US consumer sentiment index for September turned out to be slightly better than in September, but at the same time lower than forecasts. But this also did not significantly affect the movement of the quotes. We get a picture in which the US dollar does not pay attention to reports for the second day in a row and at the same time increases in price. Thus, the news background has nothing to do with the growth of the US currency. Perhaps, we can only assume that the markets thereby show their expectations from the Fed meeting next week.

An increase in the dollar quotes may mean that the markets are positive about the regulator and expect it to announce the completion of the economic stimulus program at the September meeting. At least, I don't see any other logical explanations for what is happening right now. It is also important that the US currency began to grow in the American trading session today. In general, the complication of wave b may be delayed, and there are no news reasons for the dollar's growth right now.

Based on the analysis, I conclude that the construction of the downward wave b may be completed soon. Therefore, I still expect an increase in the quotes of the pair. I still advise buying with targets located near the 1.1965 and 1.2036 marks, which corresponds to 50.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels, for each MACD signal "up". As a confirmation of this assumption, we can wait for a new successful attempt to break through the 23.6% Fibonacci level. It is best to do this, since wave b may take on a more complex form, and even the entire wave counting may change if the decline continues.

The wave counting of the higher scale looks quite convincing. We see three three-wave sections of the trend, which are approximately the same in size. However, the last section of the trend quite unexpectedly took a more complex form, but it still ended in the same place as the previous three-wave section.