FX.co ★ Fed's Beige Book: US economic growth slowing

Key US stock indices have slightly bounced off their all-time highs. However, this was a very minor rollback or just a slight drop. Thus, the situation on the stock market has not changed. We have already mentioned that the monetary policy of the Fed is considered the main reason for the growth in the US stock market. The American regulator injects $120 billion a month into the economy. Most of this money ends up in the investment markets, that is, the cryptocurrency, stock or real estate market. So, it is hardly surprising that stock indices have risen. They are still rising and are likely to continue. Investors have more money, so they invest in those assets that, in their opinion, will bring them the biggest profit, or at least protect them from inflation. Therefore, in the coming weeks or even months, it is quite reasonable to expect the continuation of the rally in the main stock indices.

In the meantime, the US has released the Beige Book report on economic activity. Despite the fact that this is just an overview across the states, and markets almost never react to it, this time it contained some interesting information. The survey says the US economy slowed to a "moderate pace" between July and August due to the new surge of coronavirus cases, in particular its Delta strain. "The deceleration in economic activity was largely attributable to a pullback in dining out, travel, and tourism in most Districts, reflecting safety concerns due to the rise of the Delta variant, and, in a few cases, international travel restrictions," the document said. The survey also notes low car sales due to supply chain disruptions. In particular, there are not enough microchips. At the same time, employment rate continues to grow in all districts as the demand for labor is increasing, and there is even a shortage of workers.

Thus, the US economy really began to slow down, which is not surprising since it cannot expand constantly. On the other hand, it is still a slowdown. The key question is what the Fed will decide regarding the QE program at its September meeting. The latest speech by James Bullard suggests that the weak August NonFarm Payrolls cannot be a reason for the Fed to abandon its plans to roll back QE. However, no one announced the curtailment of this program in September. By and large, the vast majority of experts and FOMC representatives agree that it is necessary to start cutting the stimulus program this year. However, this may start in September or even in December. In any case, as long as money flows into the US economy, stock indices are likely to continue to rise. Only when the Fed announces a particular timeline for cutting QE, the market may face a pullback based on investors' expectations.