FX.co ★ Forecast for EUR/USD on September 10, 2021

EUR/USD

Yesterday's European Central Bank meeting did not justify the moderately hawkish sentiments of market participants - the central bank's announcement regarding PEPP was vague - this program will be "moderately lower than the one that was in the 2nd and 3rd quarters." Probably, we are still talking about the planned reduction from 80 to 60-70 billion euros per month. But Lagarde stressed that we are not talking about curtailing the program. This streamlined wording reached its goal - the euro closed the day with a growth of only 10 points. Lagarde's assessment of inflation as a temporary phenomenon is also strange, while the Federal Reserve speaks out loud about its danger. In practice, the ECB makes it clear that it will not tighten policy before the US central bank. But the Fed is starting to have difficulties understanding the current situation - the Senate does not agree with the adoption of a new stimulus package for 3.5 trillion dollars.

The price is by the MACD indicator line on the daily chart. If the price moves below it, below the 1.1802 low on Wednesday, speculators may want to push the euro by another 50 points, to the lows of July, but this will fuel the confusion. It seems more convenient to wait until Tuesday next week, the US inflation report will be released on that day and a more reliable investment decision can be made. It is comfortable to wait for Tuesday, in the range of 1.1802/52.

The indicated range (1.1802/52) looks more distinct on the four-hour chart - from above it is limited by the MACD indicator line. The Marlin Oscillator is moving upwards, which, for its part, does not give signals for the market to fall.

So, we are waiting for the euro to move sideways with a slight upward gravity.