FX.co ★ Everything according to bearish plan: Bitcoin breaks upward support line - where is the next stop?

Bitcoin continues to reap the benefits of excessive market joy and low trading volumes. Thanks to these two factors, the main cryptocurrency was unable to consolidate above $51,200 and is still rolling downward, interrupted by sluggish attempts by bulls to push the price above $48,000. Over the past day, buyers managed to stabilize the situation and go into a small growth of +1%. However, at the same time, bitcoin made a bearish breakdown of the upward support line, and the daily trading volumes still do not exceed $33 billion.

Locally, the current situation around bitcoin looks natural and leads to further growth above $50,000. In the near future, the cryptocurrency will continue its downward movement within the corrective structure and retest several important support zones. The closest strong buying level will be at $45,500, where the asset consolidated in mid-August before breaking through $48,000. It is likely that this milestone will also fall if the main indicators and social activity of the coin remain at the same level. If bitcoin is still in a local upward trend, then the correction should end in the $44,000-$42,000 buy range, where the $42,400 mark is a key support zone. With a bearish breakout, the price will fly away by $39,800, where the upward movement of the coin can be questioned.

Fundamentally, there is nothing unusual about the weakening of BTC either. The coin is correcting as part of a local bullish trend, which was formed as part of a bearish trend that began in mid-May. To resume a full-fledged upward movement and establish new historical records, bitcoin needs to consolidate above $51,000. And this is where fundamental analysis of bitcoin's health is cracking as the market is weak right now, even despite the 70 mark on the Fear and Greed Index. The main reasons for the market weakness are the failed test of $51,200 and the breakdown of the upward support line. In addition, weak on-chain performance and low activity in the retail audience provoke low trading volumes, which prevent the coin from making a bullish breakout of difficult levels like $51,000.

Due to a combination of factors, bitcoin currently does not look strong enough for a bullish breakdown of $51,000 and further movement towards historical levels. The weakness of the asset provokes a correction, and the deeper it is, the more the coin needs to be collected. The closest mark for bitcoin within the current corrective structure will be $45,500. And if on the four-hour chart the Stochastic and MACD signal a likely bullish reversal, and the RSI settled at 45, then in the longer term, a tendency to continue falling is visible. Even though the RSI holds the 60 mark, signals for weakness and further downward movement are visible on the MACD and stochastic.

With a bearish breakdown of $45,500, the coin will continue to move towards the key support level at $42,400. Most likely, the local correction will end here, and before resuming the movement to $51,200, bitcoin will need to make a bullish breakout of the upward support line, which the market is trying to turn into a resistance zone. Clear signals for a bullish reversal will appear in the range of $44,000-$42,400, since taking into account the current market sentiment, this area is a profitable entry point to the asset.