FX.co ★ Forecast for EUR/USD, August 27. COT report. Market calm before Jackson Hole Symposium

EUR/USD – 1H.

Greetings! The EUR/USD pair on Thursday performed a rebound from the level of 1.1772. It also drooped by only 25 pips. So, traders did not even react to it. The quotes managed to return to the level of 1.1772. If the pair closes above this level, it may jump to the next correction level of 76.4% - 1.1837. Yesterday, there were plenty of fundamental factors that indicated possible growth of the pair at least by 50 pips. However, even the ECB's monetary policy report and US GDP data for the second quarter failed to push the pair up. Traders ignored the first report. After the publication of US GDP data, there was a small increase in long positions. The US dollar added 20 pips. Notably, traders even ignored the US initial jobless claims report.

Thus, there were many macroeconomic reports but traders were not interested. Apparently, they are waiting for Jerome Powell's speech, which is scheduled for today. At least, I want to believe that speculators are anticipating the Symposium, and not just refrain from trading trade at this time. This week, everyone is talking about Powell's upcoming speech. Every possible conclusion, statement, or scenario have been discussed many times by analysts. It remains only to be seen how accurate forecasts are going to be. I can only add that Powell is unlikely to make some unexpected statements. A week or two ago, many experts believed that Powell would announce the upcoming tapering of the QE program. Now, the majority of analysts are certain that the Fed Chairman may not even touch this topic. Hence, the regulator will continue to monitor the epidemiological situation, especially a rise in the Delta variant cases. Therefore, the euro/dollar pair will move today in the same way as it did all week before.

EUR/USD – 4H.

On the 4H chart, the pair rose to the correction level of 76.4% - 1.1782 and retreated from it. The reversal strengthened the US dollar. The pair may fall the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1606. If it closes above 76.4%, the euro may extend gains. If so, the pair will grow to the next Fibo level of 61.8% - 1.1890. Indicators do not signal divergences today.

The economic calendar for the US and the EU:

US- Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (12-30 UTC).

US - Household Expenditures and Income (12-30 UTC).

US – Jerome Powell's testimony (14-00 UTC).

US - University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (14-00 UTC).

On August 27, the macroeconomic calendar for the European Union does not contain any significant reports. Apart from Jerome Powell's speech, the US will publish several reports but they are unlikely to be factored in. Everyone is now waiting for Powell's speech.

COT report (Commitments of traders):

The latest COT report showed that during the reporting week, the mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders became more bullish. Major players have opened 21,602 Long contracts on the euro and closed 4,359 Short contracts. Thus, for the first time in the last 2 months, bulls behaved more actively than bears. The likelihood of a further fall in the euro is now less likely as it was a week earlier. At the moment, the euro looks stronger since bulls have more Long contracts than Short contracts on the euro. Therefore, the mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders, which is the most important, remains bullish.

Outlook and recommendation for EUR/USD:

Today, it is recommended to open long positions on the pair with the target level of 1.1837 on the 1H chart if it closes above the level of 1.1772. It is better to open short positions if there is a new pullback from the level of 1.1772 on the 1H chart with the target level of 1.1704.

TERMS:

"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, and large investors.

"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.

"Non-reportable positions" are small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.