FX.co ★ Forecast for GBP/USD on August 26 (COT report). Bull traders pushed up and overcame the important level of 1.3730

GBP/USD – 1H.

According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair could not consolidate above the corrective level of 23.6% (1.3731) for several days. However, it still managed to do it last night. Thus, now the price growth process can be continued toward the next corrective level of 50.0% (1.3776). And closing quotes above this Fibo level will increase the chances of growth in the direction of the next corrective level of 1.3825. Thus, the Briton got an excellent opportunity to continue growing. There is no information background in the UK at the moment. Therefore, it does not prevent the British from increasing. The American information background now depends only on Jerome Powell's speech on Friday.

Given that there has been a growth process of the British dollar and a fall of the American dollar, I assume that most traders expect "dovish" rhetoric from the Fed president. Or, at the worst, the absence of any rhetoric on the issue of the asset purchase program. After all, Powell may not touch on this topic at all during his speech.

In general, everything will be decided on Friday. Graphical analysis now shows that the chances of further growth of the British dollar are quite high. Therefore, Powell mustn't openly declare on Friday that the Fed is ready to curtail QE. In this case, the British will be able to continue its growth. It should also be noted that no important events or economic reports are planned for this week in the UK. Today, a GDP report will be released in America, which should be paid attention to, and tomorrow - changes in Americans' levels of spending and income and the consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan, which last time caused a serious fall in the US currency. However, this time will probably remain in the shadow of Jerome Powell's speech.

GBP/USD – 4H.

The GBP/USD pair continues the growth process on the 4-hour chart and closed yesterday above the corrective level of 23.6% (1.3729). Thus, the growth of quotes can be continued in the direction of the next Fibo level of 38.2% (1.3829) on a small grid. There are no emerging divergences today, so nothing should hinder the growth of the pair today.

News calendar for the USA and the UK:

US - change in GDP volume for the quarter (12:30 UTC).

US - number of initial and repeated applications for unemployment benefits (12:30 UTC).

On Thursday in the UK, the calendar of economic events does not contain a single interesting entry. Two reports will be published in America, one of which can be considered important. GDP report - traders believe that the indicator will grow by 6.6% in the second quarter (the current value is 6.5%). Therefore, any value below this can cause a new fall in the US currency.

COT (Commitments of Traders) report:

The latest COT report from August 17 on the British dollar showed that the mood of major players is again "bullish" but again weakened, as speculators closed 2,718 long and 312 short contracts in the reporting week. Thus, the total number of long contracts in the hands of speculators exceeds the total number of short contracts. However, this advantage is very weak. Instead, we can conclude that the number of long and short contracts is almost the same. The same can be said for other categories of traders since the total number of long and short contracts is almost the same.

GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:

I recommended buying the pair if the hourly chart closes above the level of 1.3731, with targets of 1.3776 and 1.3825. Now, these positions should be kept open. I recommend selling the pound with a target of 1.3731 if there is a rebound from 1.3776 on the hourly chart.

Terms:

"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.

"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.

"Non-reportable positions" are small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.