FX.co ★ BTC approaches important mark after bouncing from $50.5k and may exacerbate fall: Analysis and Forecasts

After a local correction and a period of consolidation, bitcoin resumed its upward movement on August 22. The result of the bullish rally was the breakout of a difficult resistance zone at $49,000 and the establishment of a local high at $50,500. Subsequently, the price of bitcoin began a downward movement and broke through several support zones due to an unsuccessful attempt to develop growth. As of August 25, bitcoin is moving along the upward support line and locally demonstrates powerful signals for weakening. If there is a bearish breakdown of this horizon, the market may receive a signal that will provoke an aggravation of the current BTC correction.

In addition, a potential "shooting star" pattern was formed on the horizontal charts of the cryptocurrency, which may indicate a fall in price. The completion of the current trading day, where a bearish reversal or leveling of this formation will be seen, will show how likely it is to realize the "shooting star" scenario. The price of bitcoin continued to fall, breaking through the local support zone at $48,800 and passing the next line by $47,600. Despite the obvious weakness of the daily MACD and stochastic, the RSI indicator is holding in the 60 zone, and the price is approaching an important level, where the upward support line passes. Most likely, it is near the $47,000 mark that the buyback of the current supply and the neutralization of the bearish pattern described above will take place. In this situation, BTC resumes movement towards $51,200, and in case of successful consolidation above this mark, the market receives a powerful bullish impulse.

However, if the bearish pattern is confirmed and the price successfully breaks through the upward support line at $47,000, then bitcoin is moving towards two powerful support zones. The first one is at $45,750 (this is where the bitcoin bounced back in mid-August), and the second one is formed under the round mark, at $39,750. On the way to the final support zone, the price will face several local upward barriers, including the longs zone, in the area of $42,000-$44,000. The pessimistic scenario is indicated not only by the technical indicators of the cryptocurrency but also by the declining trading volumes, which indicates the lack of resources for a powerful buyback and a possible bullish breakout. In addition, the "wedge" pattern is forming on the horizontal charts of bitcoin, which originates from the end of July, when the bullish move of bitcoin was launched. If the price continues to fall, then a local trend for a downward trend and a reversal of BTC/USDT quotes to the main support zones of the growth range may form on the charts.

When analyzing the on-chain indicators of the cryptocurrency, you can find benefits in the current correction. The indicators of Daily Active Addresses and Active Addresses (24h) indicate that the market is still not keeping up with the growth rate of BTC/USDT quotes. A correction to the main support levels can reduce the discrepancy between the price and the on-chain activity of the coin. In addition, this is another opportunity to increase the retail audience, because, despite the local bearish signals with a claim for something more, the market is set for growth. At the same time, the MVRV (30d) indicator continues to remain above 10%, which in the current situation can provoke profit-taking. The probability of this may increase significantly if bitcoin breaks through $47,000 and storms the key support levels. Massive profit-taking will break the current trend, but will significantly increase the pressure on BTC quotes.