FX.co ★ Bitcoin at $50,000 by the beginning of September: all the pros and cons

Bitcoin set a new local high at $48,200 but subsequently began to decline. As of 10:00 UTC, the asset is quoted at $45,200 and is still experiencing increased selling pressure. Over the past week, the cryptocurrency began to show signs of weakening, which could provoke a breakdown of important support levels. At the same time, bitcoin's continued attempts to consolidate above the two-month resistance zone remain unsuccessful. The cryptocurrency continues to be in demand in the market, but several factors can prevent bitcoin from consolidating above $50,000 by the beginning of September.

The main problem with bitcoin at the current stage is its excessively fast and sharp growth. At first, the main consequence of this was the lag of the on-chain activity of the coin from its real value. However, the main problem of such rapid growth is something else. The 30-day on-chain indicator MVRV, which displays the market value to the realized one, will help us to understand the problem of the upward trend of July 20. The analysis of this indicator shows that since the end of July, the line has been running above 10%. This means that most investors remained in solid profits after the bullish rally of bitcoin to $45,000. Given this, we can expect a massive profit-taking, which will put additional pressure on the quotes of BTC/USDT. In addition, historically, the context indicates that after such a delay of the MVRV indicator, a 20% drop in the bitcoin price followed.

In addition, several important factors point to the likelihood of massive profit-taking. First of all, it is worth noting the lack of tangible demand in the bitcoin futures market. Investors are showing much more interest in altcoins, trying to seize the moment to maximize profits through speculation. In addition, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust shares continue to trade at a discount of about 13% to the disputed price, which indicates a lack of significant interest in the first cryptocurrency in the medium term.

At the same time, it is worth noting the emergence of an upward trend in the social activity of bitcoin, as well as the number of active addresses in the BTC network. Since the beginning of August, overall activity on the cryptocurrency network has increased by 36%, which may indicate bullish market plans for the second half of August. However, there are clear signs of weakening on the daily chart of bitcoin. This is most evident in the stochastic, which has gone into a direct peak and is approaching the zero level. The RSI has returned to 60, while the MACD is showing preconditions for a bullish signal and continued consolidation near $45,000-$46,000

Taking into account the market's positive but restrained reaction on the current stage of bitcoin, we can expect a sideways or local correction due to profit-taking. This is also evidenced by the signals to weaken on the daily chart. At the same time, the news background continues to grow positive, and the institutionalization of the asset and the growth of the attention of the retail audience can launch a bullish rally. Given this, we can assume that bitcoin will be able to reach the $50,000 mark, but it is unlikely that the asset will be able to consolidate above it by the beginning of September.