FX.co ★ EUR/USD: plan for the US session on August 17 (analysis of morning deals).

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

Despite the ultra-low volatility of the pair in the first half of the day, we managed to get several signals for entering the market, from which we could squeeze the maximum. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze the deals. The formation of a false breakdown at the level of 1.1766 led to the formation of a signal to open long positions, after which the pair jumped up to the resistance of 1.1783, and that was the end of it. The unsuccessful consolidation above 1.1783 and the data on the eurozone GDP, which coincided with economists' forecasts – all this led to the formation of a signal to sell the euro, and then to the pair's return to the area of 1.1766. Now the situation at this level is again turning in the direction of buyers. The technical picture for the second half of the day has not changed in any way. The main task of the bulls remains to return the resistance to 1.1783 under control. In the second half of the day, relatively weak reports on retail sales in the United States are expected, and a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell may weaken the US dollar's position. A consolidation above 1.1783 with a reverse test from top to bottom forms a signal to open long positions in the expectation of recovery of the euro and the continuation of the upward trend that we observed at the end of last week. The nearest target will be the area of 1.1803. Its breakout with a similar consolidation forms an additional entry point into purchases, which will lead EUR/USD to new local levels: 1.1829 and 1.1856, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of strong retail sales data, it is best to take your time with purchases. Long positions can be opened if a false breakdown is formed in 1.1766, as it was already today during the European session. I advise buying EUR/USD immediately for a rebound only after the first test of the minimum of 1.1747, or even lower - from the level of 1.1675, counting on an upward rebound of 15-20 points within the day.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

The bears are still holding the initiative, as they did not allow the pair to return above the resistance of 1.1783. Given the market's low volatility, it isn't easy to expect more active actions from buyers at these levels. Therefore, I assume a small downward correction of the pair before the data on the American economy. If the retail sales report turns out to be much better than economists' forecasts, a breakthrough and a test of the area of 1.1766 from the bottom up will increase pressure on the pair and open the way to the lows: 1.1747 and 1.1725, where I recommend fixing the profits. A more distant target will be the support of 1.1707. However, we will reach it only if the Fed chairman tells us something about plans to wind down the asset purchase program. If EUR/USD rises after the report in the second half of the day, the main task of the bulls will be to protect the resistance of 1.1783. The formation of a false breakdown forms a signal to sell the euro. In the scenario of the absence of bear activity in the area of 1.1783, I advise you to postpone sales until the formation of a false breakdown in the area of 1.1803. I recommend selling EUR/USD immediately for a rebound only after testing a new local resistance of 1.1829, or even higher - in the area of 1.1856, counting on a downward correction of 15-20 points.

The COT report (Commitment of Traders) for August 10 showed a clear increase in traders' interest in the market, as both long and short positions increased. However, the latter turned out to be more, which led to a reduction in the positive delta. Last week, many traders focused on the consumer price index of the United States of America, which slowed down after record growth rates and coincided with economists' forecasts. It seriously affected the desire of traders to buy the US dollar in the expectation of imminent changes in the bank's monetary policy. Given such inflationary jumps, we can expect that the Federal Reserve System will slow down with changes in the bond purchase program, which many investors were counting on in September of this year. Accordingly, this will weaken the position of the US dollar. But do not think that against this background, the euro will go up sharply. The lack of guidance due to the new strain of Delta coronavirus and the incomprehensible reaction of the European economy will force the European Central Bank to continue to adhere to a wait-and-see position and maintain a stimulating policy at current levels that negatively affect the European currency. Therefore, the only thing left to do is to look at small bursts of volatility within the day – at least this state of the market will be until the autumn of this year. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions increased from the level of 199,067 to 212,809, while short non-commercial positions jumped from the level of 161,060 to the level of 178,952. At the end of the week, the total non-commercial net position decreased from the level of 38,007 to the level of 33,857. The weekly closing price also fell from 1.1874 to 1.1736.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted around 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates the sideways nature of the market in the short term.

Note: The author considers the period and prices of moving averages on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

The volatility is very low, which does not give signals to enter the market.

Description of indicators

• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence/divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
• Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet specific requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.