FX.co ★ Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for July 28, 2022

Crypto Industry News:

Microstrategy's share price has fallen by more than 55% since the beginning of the year. This is due to, among other things, an unrealized loss of bitcoins you own. It is currently valued at $ 1.3 billion.

An analyst working for the US multinational independent investment bank - Brent Thill - lowered the risk rating for Microstrategy stocks. It has been changed from "hold" to "worse performance". This is due to, inter alia, the ongoing slump in the cryptocurrency market and the lack of signals for a market reversal.

Following this announcement and bitcoin's price drop below $ 21,000 yesterday, Microstrategy shares lost more than 10% of their value. They currently stand at $ 237.

The company, led by Michael Saylor, with a market capitalization of $ 2.8 billion, currently owns 129,200 bitcoins. Looking at the current exchange rate of the original cryptocurrency, their value is estimated at around $ 2.7 billion. After devoting nearly $ 4 billion to increasing the BTC holdings in its portfolio, Microstrategy has a current unrealized loss of $ 1.3 billion.

Technical Market Outlook:

Yesterday evening we had the US data reading and the FED meeting on the decision to raise interest rates. The Federal Reserve said it would raise its benchmark short-term interest rate by another 0.75 percentage points, and with inflation at the fastest pace in years, said further rate hikes were possible. The American central bank is trying to fight the accelerating inflation by raising rates. US consumer inflation accelerated in June to 9.1 percent year on year from 8.6 percent. in May. This is the highest level since November 1981.

The cryptocurrency market is growing after this decision. In the following hours, it is worth observing whether they will have "strength" for a stronger rebound, or whether it is a temporary reaction before further declines.

From the beginning of the week the market was falling and only the decline was stopped on Tuesday around $ 20,800 - where there was both a 4-hour and a day demand zone. Also at this price level is the 0.618 Fibonacci measurement, to which Bitcoin very often responds.

The next hours will be important, as they can confirm the signal in which direction Bitcoin will go in the coming days and weeks. If this upward impulse is sustained and breaks the $ 24,246 level, it could be a signal for further gains. If we do not see further upward dynamics, it is possible that the price will visit levels below $ 20,000 once again.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $24,104

WR2 - $23,098

WR1 - $22,477

Weekly Pivot - $22,091

WS1 - $21,470

WS2 - $21,085

WS3 - $20,078

Trading Outlook:

The down trend on the H4, Daily and Weekly time frames continues without any indication of a trend termination or reversal. So far every bounce and attempt to rally is being used to sell Bitcoin for a better price by the market participants, so the bearish pressure is still high. The key long term technical support at the psychological level of $20,000 had been violated, the new swing low was made at $17,600 and if this level is violated, then the next long-term target for bulls is seen at $13,712. On the other hand, the gamechanging level for bulls is located at $25,367 and it must be clearly violated for a valid breakout.