FX.co ★ Significant changes in the markets are likely to occur only in September

In general, the global stock markets end the week on a positive note. The published data on consumer inflation in America, although they were blurred by increased values of industrial inflation, could not have a full-fledged negative impact. Investors reacted more to new fears that the Indian strain of COVID-19 will be harder to defeat than previously appeared.

By and large, the height of the summer holidays, as well as the influence of multidirectional factors, which include the COVID-19 theme, the coming economic data, and continuing expectations, with a high probability of the beginning of a change in the Fed's monetary course, continue to have a general restraining effect on the markets. Only some stories related to positive figures from the US labor market, as well as good corporate reporting in both Europe and America against the background of continuing large-scale stimulus measures, support the demand for company shares.

At the same time, the foreign exchange market is experiencing stagnation on the ICE dollar index, which has been in a very narrow range for the last three days, around 93.00 points.

The oil market also remains under pressure from the uncertainty factor. The dynamics of crude oil prices is still strongly linked to the prospects for the growth of the global economy, and hence the demand for this commodity asset.

All these reasons described above remain the main factors regulating the markets. Perhaps some noticeable changes will already take place in the wake of the speech of J. Powell at the traditional economic forum in Jackson Hole, which is expected to be held later this month.

In general, the forecast we proposed earlier suggests that the situation on the markets will develop in this way, and it comes true. We expect noticeable changes from the beginning of autumn or even following the results of the forum in Jackson Hole, where, quite likely, the head of the Federal Reserve may announce the beginning of the process of gradually curtailing the course of ultra-soft monetary policy.

From the economic data published today, we should pay attention to the figures of the consumer sentiment and expectations index from the University of Michigan, which can support the demand for risky assets by their increase.

Forecast of the day:

The USD/JPY pair demonstrates a local downward reversal on the wave of "weakness" of the dollar. Fixing the price below the level of 110.30 may lead to a fall of the pair to 109.80.

The "weakness" of the dollar will support the growth of the gold price in the short term. The price has consolidated above the level of 1754.00, which increases the probability of a price increase to 1792.35.