FX.co ★ Forecast for GBP/USD on August 2 (COT report). Bank of England: new hints of tightening or going into the "dovish" shadow?

GBP/USD – 1H.

According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the American on Friday and began the process of falling with a close under the corrective level of 50.0% (1.3909). However, unlike the EUR/USD pair, the British had reasons to decline. At least because over the past seven trading days, it has managed to increase 410 points. Therefore, a correction was needed. Fixing the pair below the level of 50.0% allows us to count on the continuation of the fall of quotes in the direction of the next corrective level of 38.2% (1.3830). Fixing the exchange rate above the level of 50.0% will favor the British dollar and the resumption of growth in the direction of the level of 61.8% (1.3989). On Friday, there was no information background in the UK. In America, as I have already said, several reports did not attract any attention from traders.

Thus, the drop in quotes in the afternoon of Friday may be due solely to graphical reasons. Traders now generally show very low interest in important and interesting news. Let me remind you that last week the pound showed strong growth. However, I cannot conclude that this growth was based on the information background available both Wednesday and Thursday for the pound/dollar pair. Therefore, it seems that traders are trading the pair without considering economic data from the US or Britain at all. This week, there will be a meeting of the Bank of England, which will no longer attract traders' attention. It is the most important event of the week for the pound/dollar pair. Traders will be waiting for new hints from the British regulator on completing the bond purchase program or increasing the number of board members who will support this decision. Any such outcome may favorably affect the British.

GBP/USD – 4H.

The GBP/USD pair on the 4-hour chart performed a consolidation above the corrective level of 23.6% (1.3870). However, after forming a bearish divergence, the CCI indicator performed a reversal in favor of the US dollar and returned to this level. A new rebound from the corrective level of 23.6% will again work in favor of some growth in the direction of the level of 1.4003. Closing the pair's rate at the level of 23.6% will work in favor of continuing the fall in the direction of the next corrective level of 38.2% (1.3642).

Overview of fundamentals:

On Friday, the calendar of economic events in the UK did not contain a single entry. However, the pound continued to be in demand among traders and traded very actively.

News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

UK - PMI index for the manufacturing sector (08:30 UTC).

US - ISM manufacturing index (14:00 UTC).

On Monday, one report of dubious importance will be released in the UK and the US. But still, the American ISM has a much better chance of being worked out by traders. However, it is unlikely that the reaction of traders will be strong.

COT (Commitments of Traders) report:

The latest COT report on July 27 for the British showed that the mood of major players remains "bearish." During the reporting week, speculators closed 1,485 short contracts and opened 429 long contracts. As we can see, the changes are small, but the mood has become a little more "bullish." At the moment, the total number of contracts among all categories of traders is almost the same – 180-182 thousand each. The number of short contracts in the "Non-commercial" category of traders is also approximately equal to the number of long contracts. Thus, judging by the COT reports, there is a global trend change for the British dollar, but at the same time, full balance is maintained at this time. However, the pound is still more inclined to grow, and the chances of a new strong fall are purely theoretical. In the near future, major players may start repurchasing the pound.

GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:

Today, you should buy the American if a new close is made above the level of 1.3909 on the hourly chart with targets of 1.3989 and 1.4003 on the hourly chart. I recommend selling the pound if there is a rebound from 1.4003 on the 4-hour chart with a target of 1.3909.

Terms:

"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.

"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.

"Non-reportable positions" are small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.