FX.co ★ EUR/USD analysis and forecast for July 29, 2021

The main event of yesterday and the whole week was the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) extended meeting or its results. The federal funds rate remained in the range of 0%-0.25%. The members of the Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously for this decision. Now about the main theses of the accompanying statement. As expected, the Fed praised the recovery of the world's leading economy, saying that it continues to recover and is strengthening. The FOMC considers COVID-19 to be the main risk for the American economy or a new delta strain of coronavirus, which has not left the United States without its attention.

The position of the US Central Bank regarding inflation has also not changed – its jump is considered a temporary factor. There were also no changes in the monthly volume of purchases of Treasury bonds ($ 80 billion) and mortgage-backed securities ($ 40 billion). The Fed will continue to monitor macroeconomic indicators and use all possible tools to support and help the national economy. The only innovation was the launch of the REPO program, which begins to operate from today, and the minimum amount of this program will be $ 500 billion.

Now about the press conference of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The main idea of his speech can be considered the thesis that the department's monetary policy will continue to remain soft until the economic recovery is fully completed. As previously expected, regarding the reduction of the quantitative easing program, Powell said that this issue would depend on the incoming macroeconomic data. About inflation, the head of the Fed expects that it will soon return to the target level of 2%. However, if its growth is longer, the Fed will have to take measures. Summing up the results of the July meeting of the Federal Reserve, I note that it coincided with the expectations of market participants and gave almost no new information. As you remember, with this development of events, it was predicted that the US dollar would be under selling pressure. It is what happened.

Daily

Following the results of yesterday's trading, the main currency pair of the Forex market showed growth and ended the session at 1.1843. The resistance of 1.1830 has finally been broken. However, it is also necessary to consolidate above this level with the closing of the current five-day trading period above. It is also necessary to note the volatility in yesterday's trading, which is not surprising at all, given the importance of the event related to the Fed. During the session on July 28, the pair fell to 1.1775, allowing traders to open buy deals. Yesterday's forecast regarding the likely growth was fully justified, which can be considered a pleasant moment. Today, I recommend looking closely at the pair's purchases on minor corrective pullbacks to the area of 1.1855-1.1835. At the peaks of the market, it is very dangerous and risky to open purchase transactions. Thus, it is better to wait for some adjustment of the exchange rate, then think about entering the market.