FX.co ★ EUR/USD analysis and forecast for July 27, 2021

Yesterday's trading for the main currency pair was very positive. In general, this Monday was far from the best day for the US currency, which declined across a wide range of the market. Perhaps investors are cautious ahead of the results of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS). Let me remind you that the two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee starts today, and tomorrow evening its results regarding interest rates and updated forecasts for the economy will be announced. Next in the program of the day will be a press conference of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. I believe that the Fed's decision on rates and the press conference of the head of this department will be the main events of this week and will significantly affect the balance of power in dollar (and not only) pairs. If we complete the short fundamental part of the review, it is worth noting today's data from the United States on orders for durable goods, which will be published at 13:30 London time, as well as the indicator of American consumer confidence, which will be released at 15:00 (London time). There is no need to wait for important releases from the eurozone today, except for the M3 monetary aggregate data, which will be presented at 09:00 London time.

Daily

If we briefly describe the technical picture on the daily chart, then after the appearance of the Friday Doji candle near the support of 1.1752, yesterday's growth did not cause any surprise. An additional signal to strengthen EUR/USD can be considered a bullish divergence of the MACD indicator. At the moment of writing the article, the pair is declining. It is likely that this is an adjustment to yesterday's growth, after which the euro/dollar will turn back in the north direction. At least, until we see a confident breakdown of the red Tenkan line of the Ichimoku indicator and the resistance level of 1.1830, it makes no sense to talk about the goals of subsequent growth. I would venture to assume that if not today, then tomorrow, both the Tenkan and the level of 1.1830 will be broken. The pair feels a change of sentiment from bearish to bullish, and the closing of yesterday's trading just above the significant mark of 1.1800 is another confirmation of this.

H1

At the end of this article, the pressure on the single European currency is becoming stronger. It would seem that the quote has already been fixed above the orange 200-exponential average. However, the bears are trying to return the rate below the 200 EMA for the pair. However, for this, it is worth waiting for the closing of three consecutive candles below the 200 exponential, as well as below the level of 1.1800. As you can see, there are another 89 EMA in the area of 1.1800, colored black on the chart, and the blue 50 simple moving average. Despite such strong pressure, which is observed at the very end of writing this review, I am more inclined to consider the version of the ascending scenario and look closely at purchases in the price area of 1.1800-1.1775. However, this is just an assumption, which will be confirmed by the appearance of bullish reversal candles in the designated area. Since the pair is currently trading near support, selling is not recommended. And in general, concerning short positions, it is better to take a wait-and-see attitude for now.