FX.co ★ Forecast for EUR/USD on July 14 (COT report). Inflation may force the Fed to stop the QE program in the near future.

EUR/USD – 1H.

On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair fell to the level of 1.1772, from which a rebound followed. Thus, a reversal was made in favor of the European currency, and the pair began the process of growth in the direction of the corrective level of 76.4% (1.1837). Fixing the quotes below the level of 1.1772 will allow traders to again count on a fall in the direction of the corrective level of 100.0% (1.1704). The information from yesterday was very strong. However, it was presented only by the report on American inflation, which produced the effect of an exploding bomb on traders. Many traders expected that after several months of continuous growth in the consumer price index, the time had come when the rate of inflation would decrease. However, yesterday's report showed that inflation continues to grow and in June it is already 5.4% y/y, which has not been the case in America for many years.

On the one hand, inflation continues to scare investors more, as the real yield of many securities and bonds is already becoming negative. On the other hand, rising inflation gives reason to expect a faster completion of the Fed's economic stimulus program. Thus, traders probably thought that increased inflation would force the Fed and Jerome Powell to announce specific deadlines for completing the economic assistance program in the near future. Most likely, it is based on such arguments that the dollar showed quite strong growth yesterday.

EUR/USD – 4H.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and fell to the corrective level of 76.4% (1.1782). The rebound of the pair's exchange rate from this level will work in favor of the EU currency and the resumption of growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 61.8% (1.1890). Closing quotes below the level of 76.4% will increase the chances of continuing the fall in the direction of the next corrective level of 100.0% (1.1606). There are no emerging divergences in any indicator today.

Overview of fundamentals:

On July 13, only the inflation report was released in America, and the calendar of economic events in the European Union was empty. However, although there was only one report during the day, the information background was very strong.

News calendar for the United States and the European Union:

EU - change in the volume of industrial production (09:00 UTC).

US - producer price index (12:30 UTC).

US - Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors Jerome Powell will make a speech (16:00 UTC).

US - publication of the Fed's economic review by region "Beige Book" (18:00 UTC).

On July 14, there will be quite a lot of interesting events in America, but the most important will be the speech of Jerome Powell since traders will now wait for him to announce specific deadlines for the completion of the QE program. The other events of the day will be secondary.

COT (Commitments of Traders) report:

The latest COT report showed that during the last reporting week, the mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders again became more "bearish". Major players have opened 3,871 long contracts on the euro, but also opened 16,472 short contracts. Thus, in the last three weeks, the number of short contracts focused on the hands of speculators has increased by 44,000, and the number of long contracts has decreased by 1,000. Therefore, a further fall in the European currency is very likely. At the same time, the general mood of speculators remains "bullish", since there are one and a half times more long contracts on their hands.

EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:

Today, I recommend selling the pair with a target of 1.1704, if the closing is made on the hourly chart below the level of 1.1772. I recommend buying the pair in case of a rebound of quotes on the hourly chart from the level of 1.1772 with the target of 1.1837.

Terms:

"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.

"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.

"Non-reportable positions" are small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.