FX.co ★ EUR/USD analysis and forecast for July 14, 2021

Today's review of the main currency pair of the Forex market will begin with the fact that investors continue to focus their attention on the timing when the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) will begin tightening its monetary policy. As the Fed leaders have repeatedly said, a lot will depend on the incoming macroeconomic data, as well as on the global situation with the spread of COVID-19. The latter factor can affect the global economic recovery after the peak of the coronavirus pandemic, and statistics will show the degree of recovery of the world's leading economy from the negative consequences of COVID-19. Given that there are sharp jumps in inflation during the recovery of the US economy, yesterday's data on the consumer price index were of considerable interest to market participants.

I would like to note that, judging by yesterday's reports, consumer prices in the United States rose more than expected, both in monthly and annual terms. In this regard, it would seem that the chances of a more rapid start of tightening the Fed's monetary policy are increasing. However, the US Central Bank still considers such an increase in inflation to be a temporary phenomenon, which is associated with the active recovery of the US economy from COVID-19, as well as the difference between supply and demand. Thus, we can assume that yesterday's strong data on consumer prices in the United States will not change the position of the Fed leadership regarding the earlier start of the process of tightening monetary policy. But investors have somewhat more optimistic expectations, and yesterday's strong data on the consumer price index led to active purchases of the US currency.

Daily

So, following the results of trading on July 13, the US dollar strengthened across a wide range of the market, including against the single European currency. There were also significant changes in the technical picture for EUR/USD, and the main thing here was the closing of yesterday's session under the landmark mark of 1.1800 and the support level of 1.1782. Nevertheless, as we already know well, it may be premature to judge the truth of the breakdown of the support of 1.1782 by just one candle closed below this level. False breakouts of levels or lines should never be excluded. In this case, when 2-3 consecutive daily candles close under the support level, the assumption of a true breakdown will take on more realistic outlines. In the meantime, we are waiting for today's trading to end, and we will try to find the optimal points for entering the market using a smaller timeframe.

H1

Taking into account the general bearish nature of trading, as well as the closing price of yesterday's session, I consider sales to be the main trading recommendation for EUR/USD. However, it is very risky to open short positions at the very bottom of the market. It is better to wait for some correction of the exchange rate and after the corresponding candle signals appear, sell the pair. Most likely, we will still see attempts to return the rate above 1.1800, possibly repeated. Taking into account this course of trading, the price zone 1.1830-1.1840 looks very good for opening sales. If we consider the opening of sales at lower prices, I recommend taking a closer look at the area of 1.1800-1.1815. Regarding purchases, I suggest waiting out and not rushing. Let at least a clear candle signal appear on the daily chart that the pair is ready to move in a northerly direction, and only after that purchases will look the safest.