FX.co ★ Forecast for AUD/USD on July 13, 2021

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar fell by several points on Monday, but this morning it has neutralized yesterday's losses and the signal line of the Marlin oscillator begins to go up from its own wedge.

If the aussie has enough strength for this exit, the target will be the embedded price channel line at 0.7522. If there is not enough strength, then a downward reversal may take place today, Marlin will come out of the wedge and move to the downside tomorrow, and the price will reach targets like 0.7410 and 0.7370. Consolidating above 0.7522 opens the target at 0.7618.

On the four-hour chart, the price settled above the MACD line after the previous reversal of the signal line of the Marlin oscillator from the zero line to the upside. This circumstance increases the chance of price growth to 0.7522. If the price moves below the MACD line (0.7470), the oscillator may move back below the zero line, into the negative zone. The first target of the decline will be the level of 0.7410, then 0.7370.

In such situations of uncertainty, the price tends to move in line with fundamental news. Today, such may be the data on inflation in the euro area and the United States. In Germany, the CPI for June is expected to decline from 2.5% to 2.3% y/y, in France there may be an increase from 1.4% to 1.5% y/y, and in the US, the CPI is expected to rise with a large increase: the base the index is forecast at 4.0% y/y from the previous 3.8% y/y, the headline CPI is expected to be in the range of 4.9-5.0% y/y against the May index of 5.0% y/y. US inflation, therefore, may turn out to be stronger, and counter dollar currencies are more likely to go down.