FX.co ★ EUR/USD: bears in full control ahead of FOMC minutes

The EUR/USD pair is trading in the red at 1.0169 at the time of writing. The bias remains bearish after taking out strong downside obstacles and because the Dollar Index tries to resume its growth.

Fundamentally, the Eurozone data came in mixed today. The German Factory Orders rose by 0.1% versus a 0.5% drop expected, while the Retail Sales surged by 0.2% versus 0.4% expected.

The USD remains strongly bullish after the JOLTS Job Opening, Final Services PMI, and the ISM Services PMI came in better than expected earlier today. The most important event of the day is represented by the FOMC Meeting Minutes which could really shake the markets. As you already know, the FED increased the Federal Funds Rate by 75bps in the last monetary policy meeting and it has announced further hikes in the next meetings. More hawkish than expected FOMC Minutes could lift the USD.

EUR/USD Bearish Bias!

I've told you in my previous analysis that the EUR/USD pair could extend its sell-off if it drops and closes below the S2 (1.0220) and below the lower median line (lml). In the short term, it has tried to rebound but it has failed to retest the lower median line (lml) signaling strong downside pressure.

The 1.0201 former high stands as a static resistance. The bias remains bearish despite temporary rebounds. Actually, a minor bounce back could bring new selling opportunities. As long as we don't have a strong bullish reversal pattern, we cannot talk about longs on EUR/USD.

EUR/USD Forecast!

Staying below the lower median line (lml) and making a new lower low, dropping and closing below the 1.0161 could activate further drop towards the warning line (wl1). This scenario could bring short-term selling opportunities.