FX.co ★ Forecast for EUR/USD on July 5, 2021

EUR/USD

The euro rose 15 points last Friday against strong US labor data. The report showed that there are 850,000 new jobs in the non-agricultural sector, while expectations were at 700,000. But the unemployment rate worsened from 5.8% to 5.9%, while the share of the economically active population remained at the same level of 61.6%. Investors (and media) ignored the cuts in the broad U6 unemployment index from 10.2% to 9.8%, which still indicates a recovery in the employment sector.

Today is a public holiday in the United States, and PMI indices will be published tomorrow, so there is a reason to attack counterdollar currencies.

A double price divergence has formed with the Marlin oscillator on the weekly chart. The signal line of the oscillator has turned from the upper border of its own descending channel and has the potential to reach the lower border. This potential is indicated by the price settling below the MACD indicator line and below the balance line (red). The measured movement of the oscillator to the lower border of the channel gives an indicative target for the euro in the area of 1.1495 - to a 50% correction of all growth since March 2020. This target almost coincides with the March 2020 high (checkmark).

On the daily chart, the price bounced back above the 1.1855 target level supported by weak convergence with Marlin. The convergence weakness lies in the fact that if the price drops from the current levels back to the area under 1.1855, the formation will transform into a regular oscillator discharge before declining further. Marlin's succeeding growth seems to be limited by the border of the growth area, which corresponds to an approximate power reserve of the price by 60 points.

On the H4 chart, the price lies on the support from the target level and the MACD line. Consolidating below the level will bring back the downward movement. We are waiting for the development of events, we don't expect volatility to be great today.