FX.co ★ Analysis and forecast for GBP/USD for June 28, 2021

As already noted in today's first article on the euro/dollar, at the auction of the last five days, the US dollar weakened against all major competitors, except for the Japanese yen. In particular, the pound/dollar currency pair ended trading on June 21-25 with a strengthening of 0.67%. It is the same growth that was shown by the single European currency. At the same time, the British pound had a more intense trading week last week than the euro. It can be judged by the Bank of England's decision on rates, which somewhat disappointed investors and put pressure on the "Briton." After the very ambiguous hints of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) about the beginning of tightening its monetary policy, the markets began to expect similar signals from other leading world central banks. In this regard, it should be noted that following the results of its last meeting, the Bank of England did not give any such signals, which became the main reason for pressure on the pound. And this week, there will be no shortage of significant events for the GBP/USD pair either. The UK will publish final GDP data for the first quarter, and data on the labor market will be received from the US on the last day of the current five-day trading week, which has a strong impact on the markets. Well, now it's time for the pair to move on to the technical picture for GBP/USD. Taking advantage of Friday's closing of weekly trading, we will start with the corresponding time interval.

Weekly

And again, the situation repeats itself. It refers to the inability of the bulls for the pound to overcome the strong technical and psychological level at 1.4000. As you can see, after the growth to this mark, the players for the rate increase completely lost control of the pair, which their opponents immediately took advantage of. As a result, the last weekly candle formed a long upper shadow, and the closing price of trading on June 21-25 was 1.3878. It is even below another significant level of 1.3900.

On the other hand, it should be noted that the support at 1.3785 withstood the onslaught of sellers and did not let the quote go lower. It is vital to pass 1.4000 and consolidate trades above this mark to resume growth. However, the bulls on the pound have serious problems with this. Bears need to break through the support at 1.3785 to implement the downward scenario further. In the first case, the bulls' targets will be 1.4035, 1.4080, and 1.4100. In a bearish scenario, after the breakdown of 1.3785, we are waiting for the rate at 1.3730, 1.3700, and 1.3680.

Daily

The nearest resistance is represented by the black 89-exponential moving neighbor on the daily chart, which passes at 1.3925. The lower border of the daily cloud of the Ichimoku indicator and the red Tenkan line, which are located in the price zone of 1.3950-1.3960, can provide higher resistance. According to the author's personal opinion, the main trading idea for the pound/dollar currency pair is sales, after short-term rises to the price zone of 1.3915-1.3950. If bearish candles appear here on the daily or lower timeframes, signaling a possible decline, we sell with the nearest targets of 1.3900 and 1.3860. However, we cannot completely exclude an alternative scenario in which we try to buy, in the presence of the same signals, from the price area of 1.3860-1.3820 and below, with a short-term price decline in the area 1.3810-1.3790.