FX.co ★ Analysis and forecast for GBP/USD on June 25, 2021

Following the results of yesterday's meeting, the Bank of England decided not to make any changes to its monetary policy. As expected, the main interest rate remained at a record low of 0.1%, and the volume of the asset purchase program remained at the monthly level of 875 billion pounds. Regarding the comments of the British monetary officials, we can say that they had slightly optimistic rhetoric. Thanks to the successful vaccination program, the COVID-19 pandemic is gradually receding, restrictions are also being gradually lifted, and the usual way of life is slowly improving in the United Kingdom. However, it is still too early to talk about a complete victory over COVID-19. The main problem is the emerging new strains of COVID-19, which provoke new spikes in the number of infections. However, in general, the situation is gradually normalizing. If we return to the comments of the Bank of England, then, unlike the Fed, the British Central Bank has not yet given any hints about the timing of the start of the cycle of tightening its monetary policy. At the same time, I would like to note the cautious, restrained, but generally optimistic rhetoric of the Bank of England's leadership. If we touch on the fundamental component, today at 13:30 London time, data from the United States will begin to arrive. So, we will learn about the personal income and expenses of citizens of the United States and get acquainted with the basic index of prices for personal consumption.

Daily

If we turn to the technical picture for the pound/dollar currency pair, the lack of signals about the timing of monetary policy tightening by the Bank of England put pressure on the British pound, which fell yesterday against the US dollar, and the GBP/USD pair ended trading at 1.3916 on June 24. At the same time, it is characteristic that during yesterday's trading, the pound/dollar pair rose to 1.3984. However, it could not reach the most important psychological and technical level of 1.4000. Today, when writing the article, GBP/USD continues to show bearish dynamics. Although the decline cannot be called strong, it is somewhat restrained. The pair is currently trading near 1.3900. If this mark does not stand and cannot repel the bears' attacks, the next targets at the bottom will be 1.3860, 1.3830, and 1.3800.

A further reference point for a possible decline will be a strong support level at 1.3785, from the breakdown of which the further prospects for the price movement of the British currency will depend. If the pound bulls can still overcome the 1.4000 mark, this will be a good signal for continued growth, where the nearest targets will be 1.4035, 1.4075, 1.4100, and possibly 1.4130. I will be careful about trading recommendations today. First, the closing of weekly trading implies various surprises, and not always pleasant ones. Secondly, the current technical picture itself does not give an unambiguous conclusion about the pair's further direction. To avoid rash and adventurous decisions, I suggest staying out of the market today. On Monday, taking into account the closing of weekly trading, we will conduct a more thorough analysis and try to find the best options for entering the market.