FX.co ★ Forecast for EUR/USD on June 23 (COT report).

EUR/USD – 1H.

The EUR/USD pair performed a new reversal in favor of the European currency on Tuesday and closed above the corrective level of 61.8% (1.1919). Thus, the growth process can now be continued at the next corrective level of 50.0% (1.1985). Fixing the pair's rate under the level of 61.8% will work in favor of the US currency, and some fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 76.4% (1.1837). The information background on Tuesday was extremely weak for the euro/dollar pair. By and large, only the evening performance of Jerome Powell pulled on the "important event." However, looking ahead a little, we can say that the Fed president did not talk about the Fed's monetary policy and possible plans for a program of stimulating the economy. Jerome Powell said he was not concerned that Russia and China might abandon their dollar reserves at a House hearing. Powell noted that the Fed is not worried about this and is not even considering this issue. Powell believes that the US dollar remains the world's reserve currency, and no currency can compete with it in this field. "The dollar has achieved this status thanks to our democratic institutions, our achievements in keeping inflation low, our open capital markets, and our trade relations with the world," Powell said. However, this information did not force traders to trade more actively. And it concerned the sphere of trade and economy very superficially. This evening, Christine Lagarde will make a speech. In general, no one expects "hawkish" rhetoric and support for the euro currency from Christine Lagarde.

EUR/USD – 4H.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes closed under the downward trend corridor. However, this does not change the essence of the graphical picture. The quotes performed a rebound from the corrective level of 61.8% (1.1890), so now the growth process has begun in the direction of the levels of 50.0% (1.1977) and 38.2% (1.2065). A bearish divergence is brewing for the CCI indicator.

EUR/USD – Daily.

On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and consolidated under the corrective level of 161.8% (1.2027). Thus, the fall in quotes can be continued in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.1729).

EUR/USD – Weekly.

On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has made a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle," which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term.

Overview of fundamentals:

On June 22, Jerome Powell gave a speech in the European Union, but nothing interesting or important was said for traders. The information background was practically absent yesterday.

News calendar for the United States and the European Union:

EU - index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (08:00 UTC).

EU - index of business activity in the service sector (08:00 UTC).

US - index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (13:45 UTC).

US - PMI index for the service sector (13:45 UTC).

EU - ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech (16:00 UTC).

On June 23, a new speech by Christine Lagarde will be held and reports on business activity in the United States and the European Union. The information background will be average in strength.

COT (Commitments of Traders) report:

The latest COT report, which was released late, showed that speculators actively got rid of long and short contracts during the reporting week. A total of 20,645 long contracts and 32,360 short contracts were closed. Thus, the mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders has again become more "bullish," which does not correspond to what is happening now for the euro/dollar pair. However, I would like to draw your attention to the fact that the strong fall in the euro quotes occurred on the days that were not taken into account in the last report, so to understand the mood of the major players, you need to wait for the next report to be released.

EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:

It is recommended to sell the pair if the quotes close at 61.8% (1.1919) on the hourly chart with a target of 1.1837. I recommend buying the pair in case of a rebound of quotes from the level of 1.1919 on the hourly chart with targets of 1.1985 and 1.2051.

Terms:

"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.

"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.

"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.