FX.co ★ EUR/USD: plan for the US session on June 14 (analysis of morning trades).

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need to:

Industrial production in the euro area surprised traders and turned out to be even better than economists' forecasts, giving euro buyers confidence in the first half of the day. It allowed them to return the pair to the resistance area of 1.2126. Unfortunately, if you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see that none of the levels have been tested. Accordingly, there were no signals to enter the market. Because of this, the technical picture of the pair has not changed in any way, and the emphasis will continue to remain at the level of 1.2126.

Important fundamental statistics are not expected in the second half of the day. Thus, it is unlikely to expect a strong bullish momentum. Given that the market is still under the control of sellers after Friday's fall, a break and a test of the level of 1.2126 from top to bottom on the volume can form an entry point into long positions in the expectation of an upward correction to update the maximum of 1.2158. A more significant resistance level is seen in the area of 1.2190, where I recommend taking the profits. In the scenario of a decline in the euro, you can count on long positions only after testing a new local minimum in the area of 1.2073 to rebound and an upward correction of 15-20 points within the day.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need to:

Bears need to think carefully about protecting the resistance of 1.2126, which buyers target this afternoon. Given that important fundamental statistics are not expected, the formation of a false breakout at the level of 1.2126 forms a signal to sell the euro with the aim of further decline to the area of a new local minimum of 1.2073 on the breakdown of which quite a lot will depend. The test of 1.2073 from the bottom up will form an additional sell signal for EUR/USD in the expectation of a fall to the new support of 1.2023, where I recommend taking the profit. The next target will be a minimum of 1.1988. Suppose there is no bear activity in the area of 1.2126 today in the second half of the day. In that case, I recommend postponing short positions until the resistance test of 1.2158, where you can immediately sell the pair for a rebound with the expectation of a downward correction of 15-20 points. The following serious level is at the new local resistance of 1.2190.

Let me remind you that the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for June 1 shows an increase in long positions and a reduction in short ones, indicating an increase in demand for the European currency in the last month of the second quarter year. It is expected that the European economy will show a particularly strong recovery in the summer, which will lead to new growth of the European currency in the area of annual highs. The lifting of several quarantine restrictions, which are still in effect in European countries, will lead to an even greater economic recovery. It will boost increased retail sales and inflation, which has seriously increased in the euro area. Data on activity in the manufacturing sector and the service sector also continue to please economists, which once again indicates a serious pace of recovery. Traders now perceive any strong movements of the EUR/USD pair downwards as an excellent opportunity to gain long positions in continuing the bull market.

The dollar hopes that the Federal Reserve System will seriously reduce the volume of bond purchases in the summer. However, we will not know about this until mid-June. The COT report shows that long non-profit positions jumped from the level of 236,103 to 237,360, while short non-profit positions fell from the level of 132,103 to 128,038. It indicates an influx of new buyers in the expectation of continued growth of the euro and a wait-and-see attitude on the part of sellers. Given that the pair had seriously recovered last Friday, this may indicate the formation of a new upward trend and the return of EUR/USD to local highs. It is where the bulls will continue to accumulate long positions with the expectation of going beyond them. It indicates a possible breakdown of the highs of last month in the near future and the continuation of the euro's growth. The total non-commercial net position increased from 104,000 to 109,322. The weekly closing price also increased from 1.22142 to 1.22326.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted in 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which limits the upward potential of the pair.

Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

A break of the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.2220 will lead to a new wave of growth of the pair. In the event of a decline in the euro, the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.2090 will provide support.

Description of indicators

• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence/divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
• Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet specific requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.