FX.co ★ Forecast for GBP/USD on June 14 (COT report).

GBP/USD – 1H.

According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair quotes on Friday performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and performed a fall to the lower border of the side corridor. Already this morning, they made a return to this line. The rebound of the pair's rate from it will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the British dollar and some growth in the direction of the corrective level of 200.0% (1.4216), located near the upper limit of the corridor. Closing quotes under the corridor will significantly increase the probability of continuing to fall in the direction of the Fibo levels of 127.2% (1.4064) and 100.0% (1.4008). On Friday, the information background for the Briton was "native." All the most important economic data of the day came from the UK. However, the very values of these reports were very modest and contradictory.

Industrial production in April, instead of growing by 1.2%, fell by 1.3%. The three-month GDP value rose by 1.5% in April, precisely in line with traders' expectations. The monthly change in GDP in April was +2.3%, with approximately the exact forecasts. Thus, there was no surprise. Traders did not pay attention to this data at all. Because almost from the very morning, the fall of the British dollar began, and since the British statistics can hardly be called disappointing, it is not in it. In addition, on Friday, the European currency also showed a substantial fall. Therefore, traders fixed positions on long trades, which led to a synchronous fall of the euro and the pound. At the same time, the pound has not yet been able to close below the side corridor, in which it has been for a month.

GBP/USD – 4H.

If the GBP/USD pair is inside the side corridor on the hourly chart, then on the 4-hour chart, it continues to be inside the ascending corridor. Last Friday, it performed a fall to its lower border. Thus, the closing of quotes under this border will work in favor of a further fall in the pair's rate in the direction of the level of 1.4003. At the moment, the quotes are near the lower border of two corridors at once.

GBP/USD – Daily.

On the daily chart, everything still depends on the trend line, along which the movement of quotes continues. Closing the pair's rate under this line will work in favor of the US dollar and start falling in the direction of the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3513). Until this happens, the growth process can be resumed at any time in the direction of the corrective level of 161.8% (1.4812).

GBP/USD – Weekly.

The pound/dollar pair completed a close over the second downward trend line on the weekly chart. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound remain.

Overview of fundamentals:

On Friday, several important reports in the UK and a speech by the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey. However, the governor did not report anything important, and the traders ignored the reports.

News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

UK - Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will deliver a speech (13:00 UTC).

On Monday, the US calendar of economic articles is empty. There will be another speech by Andrew Bailey in the UK today. However, it will all depend on whether he has anything important to say.

COT (Commitments of Traders) report:

The COT report of June 8 on the British pound showed that the mood of the major players has not changed. In total, speculators closed 7,000 long and short contracts during the reporting week. Thus, only the total number of contracts concentrated in the hands of the "Non-commercial" category of traders decreased. Moreover, they also got rid of both types of contracts in the "Commercial" and "Non-Commercial" categories. All market players got rid of the contracts for the Briton. It indicates a new drop in interest among traders in the pound. However, the mood of speculators on it remains confident "bullish," as the number of long contracts exceeds the number of short contracts twice.

GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:

Purchases of the British dollar are recommended today if a new rebound is made from the lower border of the side corridor with targets of 1.4185 and 1.4216. It is recommended to sell the pound if the hourly chart closes below the side corridor with the targets of 1.4064 and 1.4008.

Terms:

"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.

"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.

"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.