FX.co ★ Analysis and forecast for EUR/USD on June 11, 2021

As noted in yesterday's article, the main event of the whole week was the European Central Bank (ECB) decision on interest rates and the subsequent press conference of ECB President Christine Lagarde. I should immediately note that the ECB did not present any surprises to market participants. As expected, the main interest rate remained at zero, the margin rate was kept at 0.25%, and the deposit rate did not change and remained at minus 0.50%. At the same time, the ECB Governing Council does not see any prerequisites for a change in rates until inflation in the region approaches the key level of 2% or slightly below this mark. In other words, the current rates will remain so for quite a long period. At the same time, the analytical departments of many major commercial banks will focus on the September meeting of the European regulator. As experts suggest, at the meeting in September, the ECB may announce a reduction in the quantitative easing program and some nuances of further monetary policy. I want to add that such steps will become even more likely if the Fed already reduces (or announces it) the volume of bond purchases by this time. As you know, it is the Fed that is the trendsetter in monetary policy for the rest of the world's largest Central Banks.

As for the press conference of ECB President Christine Lagarde, we did not hear any unexpected statements. The head of the ECB told what everyone already knows. Namely, after a significant fall in the first quarter, the economy of the eurozone is gradually recovering from the effects of COVID-19 in the second. In particular, the service sector and industrial production demonstrate positive dynamics. According to Lagarde, it is expected that economic activity will further strengthen in the second half of this year. However, this will happen if the restrictions caused by COVID-19 continue to be gradually lifted and the situation with the coronavirus epidemic continues to stabilize in the direction of improvement. In her speech, the head of the ECB also paid attention to the problems of inflation. However, in general, no sensations were expected in the speech of the ECB president. In today's economic calendar, there are no important reports from the United States and Europe that can affect the price dynamics of EUR/USD. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that trading on the main currency pair will be influenced by the technical component and market sentiment. We should not completely discount the fact that market participants fully played out yesterday's events related to the ECB. Investors have not received any new information, and the old information is already included in the euro price.

Daily

Yesterday's daily candle fully reflected the mood of market participants, who did not receive a new driver for the directional price movement. There were no significant changes in the technical picture for the euro/dollar over the past day. The pair still cannot go up the important and strong level of 1.2200 and gain a foothold (close the day) above this mark. In turn, support in the area of 1.2140-1.2100 does not allow implementing a bearish scenario. In other words, everything that has been happening on the EUR/USD charts recently can be described as consolidation. Usually, after its completion, a good price movement in one direction or another follows. For today, I recommend taking a closer look at the price zone 1.2175-1.2145 for buying, and after the bullish candlestick analysis patterns appear here, buy, but with a small target near 1.2200. However, if bearish candlestick signals appear, you can try to sell with targets near 1.2150. As you can see, everything is minimal and very compressed. There is no scope.