FX.co ★ Forecast for EUR/USD on June 11. COT report. Christine Lagarde's rhetoric was moderately positive

EUR/USD - 1H.

On Thursday, June 10, the EUR/USD pair tried to fix under the correction level 161.8% - 1.2166, but the attempt was unsuccessful. Thus, the pair continues to trade mostly sideways, maintaining the chances of growth towards the 1.2238 level. The information background of yesterday was strong enough, but it did not bring the expected result. Traders were counting on the growth of inflation in the United States, but it grew much stronger than they expected. The consumer price index rose to 5.0% y/y in May, while the core index rose to 3.8% y/y. Thus, the dollar showed growth at first, but after the results of the ECB meeting became known, the growth was replaced by a fall, which was also very limited. We can say that during the past day, traders have not yet decided what to do with the euro-dollar pair.

The results of the meeting were very predictable. The deposit and key rates remained unchanged. Also, the regulator did not consider it necessary to make any adjustments to the asset purchase program, which remained unchanged in terms of timing and volume. The only thing that the regulator noted was an increase in the rate of asset purchases in the next few months. This decision was made on the basis of a "flexible approach" to stimulating the economy. Also, positive news was the increase in forecasts for the recovery of the European economy after the crisis. The ECB now expects 4.6% growth in 2021. At the March meeting, ECB expectations were + 4.0%. Thus, traders worked out a moderately positive rhetoric from the ECB, but this did not lead to a serious increase in the European currency. We can say that after the next trading day, the graphical picture has not changed at all.

EUR/USD - 4H.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair rose to the level of 1.2223, but there was no rebound from this level. Thus, the quotes made a reversal in favor of the US currency and began a new fall in the direction of the correction level 161.8% - 1.2027, but this fall is very weak, and the entire movement has been very unstable in recent weeks.

EUR/USD - Daily.

On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair closed above the level of 161.8% - 1.2027. But at the moment, all charts signal different movements and directions. There is no unity in the graphic picture. This is an unstable situation.

EUR/USD - Weekly.

On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has completed the consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term.

News overview:

June 10 in America and the European Union, the calendars of economic events contained several interesting events that had a strong impact on traders. However, not for a couple of euro-dollar, which, by and large, remained where it was before all the events.

News calendar for USA and EU:

June 11 in the United States and the European Union, the calendars of economic events are completely empty. Thus, there will be no information background today.

COT (Commitments of traders) report:

Last Friday, another COT report was released, which again showed the strengthening of the bullish mood among speculators. The "Non-commercial" category of traders opened only 751 Long contracts, but at the same time got rid of almost 4 thousand Short contracts. Thus, speculators continue to promote the growth of the European currency in one way or another. In general, the changes for all categories of traders are minimal. In total, 224 Long contracts and 2,142 Short contracts were closed, which indicates low activity of major players in the reporting week.

Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders:

I recommend selling the pair in case of a rebound from the level of 1.2223 on the 4-hour chart with targets at 1.2166 and 1.2117. I recommend buying the pair in case of an exact rebound from the correction level 161.8% - 1.2166 on the hourly chart with the target of 1.2238.

TERMS:

"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.

"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency not to obtain speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.

"Non-reportable positions" are small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.