FX.co ★ Forecast for GBP/USD on June 9. COT report. David Frost: The Northern Ireland Protocol should be reviewed.

GBP/USD – 1H.

According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair quotes on Tuesday performed a fall to the Fibo level of 161.8% (1.4136). However, there was no clear rebound from this level. In general, the pound/dollar pair continues to remain inside the sideways trend corridor, which it has been for several weeks. Unfortunately, even the boundaries of this corridor are rarely worked out, and when the price still reaches them, there are no clear rebounds. Thus, now trading on the pound/dollar pair is as complicated as possible. According to the latest information received from the highest political circles of the EU and Britain, it follows that London is not happy with how the protocol on the Northern Ireland border works, which is part of the Brexit agreement.

Moreover, Brussels insists on the full implementation of all previously reached agreements and threatens London to take measures if it violates them or changes them unilaterally. Let me remind you that since the beginning of the year, there have already been several precedents when London unilaterally changed some points of the agreement. It is especially true for various checks and security checks at the border between Northern Ireland and the UK. David Frost, a member of the British Parliament, said recently that due to the Northern Ireland Protocol, some suppliers stopped sending their products to Northern Ireland. He noted a decrease in the amount of medicines and food supplied. However, the representative of the European Commission, Maros Sefcovic, on the contrary, believes that any agreement should be adhered to, and any deal requires the consent of all parties. Brussels does not yet see the need to change the order of customs control and sanitary checks at the border of Northern Ireland.

GBP/USD – 4H.

On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair rebounded from the corrective level of 0.0% (1.4240), turned in favor of the US currency, and began the process of falling in the direction of the level of 1.4003, which is constantly interrupted. The upward trend corridor continues to indicate the "bullish" mood of traders. However, the chart clearly shows that the quotes can not continue to grow for almost a month. Closing the pair's rate under the corridor will favor a further drop in quotes and change the mood of traders to "bearish."

GBP/USD – Daily.

On the daily chart, everything still rests on the trend line, along which the movement of quotes continues. The closing of the papa rate under this line will favor the US dollar and the beginning of the fall in the direction of the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3513). Until this happens, the growth process can be resumed at any time in the direction of the corrective level of 161.8% (1.4812).

GBP/USD – Weekly.

The pound/dollar pair completed a close over the second downward trend line on the weekly chart. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound remain.

Overview of fundamentals:

There were no significant economic events in the UK or the US on Tuesday. There was no background information.

News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

On Tuesday, the calendars of economic events in the United Kingdom and the United States are again empty, and this situation will continue until Thursday.

COT (Commitments of Traders) report:

The COT report of June 1 on the British pound showed that the mood of the major players has sharply become more "bearish." During the week, the "Non-commercial" category of traders closed as many as 6,544 short contracts and opened only half a thousand long contracts. However, these changes did not affect the British exchange rate. It is still in an upward trend. Other categories of traders also did not behave too actively, and a total of an equal number of long and short contracts were opened during the reporting week. Thus, in general, the "bullish" mood remains, which is supported by the total number of open contracts for speculators: the number of longs exceeds the number of shorts twice.

GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:

Purchases of the British dollar are recommended if there is a rebound from the lower border of the side corridor or 1.4136 with a target of 1.4216. It is recommended to sell the pound sterling if the daily chart closes below the trend line.

Terms:

"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.

"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.

"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.