FX.co ★ Hot forecast for GBP/USD on June 7, 2021

The main conclusion that can be drawn from the content of the report of the United States Department of Labor is that the American labor market continues to recover steadily. After all, the unemployment rate fell from 6.1% to 5.8%. And this is despite the fact that even the most optimistic forecasts spoke about the possibility of its reduction only to 5.9%. Of course, you can try pointing your finger at the level of economic activity, which, instead of rising from 61.7% to 61.8%, fell to 61.6%. But let's be honest, it could have reduced the unemployment rate by 0.1%. And do not forget that from November last year to March this year, the level of economic activity was slightly lower than the current one. One can find fault with the number of new jobs outside agriculture, of which not 610 thousand were created, but only 559 thousand. But this is still quite a lot. In the previous month, only 278 thousand of them were created. From November last year to February this year, much less of them were created. In December, their number dropped by 306 thousand.

In other words, no matter how much you find fault in it, the content of the report of the United States Department of Labor is still great. Most importantly, it clearly indicates that unemployment will continue to decline. But as soon as all these data were published, the pound skyrocketed. At first, this was perceived as banal speculation, the formal reason for which was the level of economic activity and the number of new jobs created outside of agriculture. It is quite possible to agree with this, but only if almost immediately, the pound would go down. But the speculation went too far, and the pound was extremely reluctant to start losing ground. This process continues now, as there are still no real reasons for the pound to rise. So, we will continue to observe its gradual decline. Logically, it should drop below the values at which it was before the publication of the report of the United States Department of Labor.

Unemployment rate (United States):

The GBP/USD currency pair has been moving in the established side corridor 1.4100 / 1.4245 for 15 trading days in a row, consistently working out the set boundaries. Based on the recent amplitude, we can see a rebound from the lower border of the channel, with a movement towards the average level of 1.4172, where there was a reduction in the volume of long positions.

The market dynamics has signs of acceleration, while the price movement has a sideways format. The speculative operations ratio continues to grow, which is confirmed by the structure of the trading candles.

Based on the current location of the quotes, the price rebound from the average level of 1.4172 led to a fairly intensive recovery of short positions.

In this situation, we can assume that the price rebound from the level of 1.4172 will return us to the lower border of 1.4100, where it is already necessary to analyze the price behavior with the breakout method, or a rebound relative to the control level.

From the point of view of complex indicator analysis, it is clear that the indicators of technical instruments on the minute and hour periods have a sell signal due to the price rebound from the average level along a downward trajectory.