FX.co ★ EUR/USD. Euro rises again: 23rd figure is on the horizon

The euro-dollar pair consolidated within the 22nd figure, despite the "dovish" comments of some representatives of the ECB. Today, the single currency has received support from macroeconomic statistics. The published figures once again confirmed the fact that the European economy is recovering at an outstripping pace, amid an improvement in the epidemiological situation in Europe and an acceleration in the rate of vaccination of the population against COVID-19.

Let me remind you that yesterday, the buyers of EUR/USD were able to partially regain their lost positions due to the data from Germany. The German inflation growth indicators came out in the "green zone", foreshadowing the growth of inflation indicators on a pan-European scale. So, on an annual basis, the German consumer price index continued its upward trend, rising to 2.5% in May. The indicator has been growing consistently over the past five months. The harmonized index of consumer prices similarly exceeded the forecast values-both in monthly and annual terms.

Germany is considered the "locomotive" of the European economy, so the euro received significant support yesterday, returning to the 22nd figure in the pair with the dollar. Today's macroeconomic block, in turn, only strengthened the position of buyers of EUR/USD.

So, the pan-European consumer price index in May rose to 2%, exceeding the forecast values (most experts expected to see this indicator at around 1.9%). The indicator shows a positive trend for the third month in a row. For comparison, the CPI was 0.9% in February and 1.6% in April. In other words, we see consistent and very active growth in overall inflation. If we talk about the dynamics of core inflation, the situation is not so rosy. But there are also certain reasons for optimism. The core index paused its decline for the first time in the last three months and again showed growth. Thus, the core CPI in January was at 1.4%, while in April it slowed to 0.7%. Today, the indicator came out at 0.9%.

Unemployment did not disappoint either. The overall unemployment rate in Europe continues to decline gradually. In May, this figure came out at 8.0% (the decline has been recorded for the third month in a row). The PMI indices have become a kind of "cherry on the cake" today. The May index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in Germany was revised upward (64.4 points). The European PMI in the manufacturing sector showed similar dynamics.

The macroeconomic reports mentioned allowed buyers of EUR/USD to "stay afloat" and drift above the 1.2200 mark. But a more powerful informational motive is needed for the upward breakout.

The dovish position of the ECB became a kind of "anchor" for the euro. Even though there was actually a divided sentiment regarding the further fate of QE amongst the members of the ECB, "hawks" are clearly in the minority. In particular, Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy De Galhau, said last week that the European Central Bank "does not need to rush to change the rate of asset repurchases." At the same time, he stressed that any assumptions about reducing the buyout already at the June meeting are just speculation. Not so long ago, Christine Lagarde joined the doves of the Central Bank. The head of the European regulator said that against the background of general uncertainty, a soft monetary policy is still necessary - "both at the moment and in the future in the coming months." She also stressed that the current increase in inflation "is a temporary phenomenon."

But here it should be noted that the growth of inflation indicators both in Germany and in the eurozone as a whole is consistent and, one might say, systemic. And indirect inflation indicators signal the continuation of the upward trend in the near term. This leads to a logical question - how long will the ECB be able to avoid talking about cutting incentives?

During the recent meeting of the ECB, Lagarde denied rumors that the regulator could cut PEPP this summer. According to her, the European Central Bank has not yet discussed the curtailment (or adjustment) of the large-scale program of emergency asset purchases. At the same time, she recalled that in March the Central Bank accelerated the rate of buying up bonds, so at the moment it is "too early" to talk about any changes.

However, the dovish rhetoric of the ECB representatives has only a short-term impact on the EUR/USD pair. Key European macroeconomic indicators continue to demonstrate positive dynamics, strengthening the optimistic sentiment in the business environment (as evidenced by the PMI, IFO, ZEW indices).

There is a common position on the market, which is expressed in the fact that the European regulator will have to react to the dynamics of the main macro-indicators with hawkish decisions or at least intentions. Thus, a certain uncorrelation with the Fed regarding the prospects for tightening monetary policy parameters allows the EUR/USD bulls to hold the occupied heights, demonstrating the strength of the upward trend. The dollar, in turn, is under the background pressure of the dovish position of the Fed. Neither the record growth of the PCE index nor the presentation of an ambitious draft of the US budget helped the dollar bulls to develop a large-scale rally. As soon as the greenback strengthened its positions (on Friday), it immediately fell under a wave of sales (on the same day). As a result, the pair showed increased volatility but closed the trading day at the opening level.

Thus, the current fundamental background suggests that the EUR/USD pair has not exhausted its potential in the context of further growth. The technical side of the issue also speaks about the priority of longs. The pair on the daily chart is located between the middle and upper lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator, as well as above all the lines of the Ichimoku indicator (including above the Kumo clouds). The situation is similar on the weekly chart. The first target of the upward movement is 1.2266 (5-month price high), the main target is 1.2300 (upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart).