FX.co ★ US dollar is slowly declining as it awaits new data on US employment

Commodity currencies, primarily the Australian and New Zealand dollars, receive support, while the US dollar remains in a state of collapse, gradually declining against a basket of major currencies.

The result of the RBNZ meeting held today was not surprising. As expected, the regulator left the key interest rate unchanged at 0.25%, and the speech of the head of the Central Bank, Mr. Orr was quite predictable. During a press conference, he said that the situation in economically developed countries amid the COVID-19 pandemic is recovering, and so, the regulator expects temporary inflation growth in the wake of signs of growth in business investment. He also added that he is confident that the risk of general inflation remains low. In fact, the head of the New Zealand Central Bank made it clear that the current monetary rate will remain unchanged.

This position of Orr has supported the New Zealand currency, which gained more than 1% against the US dollar. The results of the RBNZ meeting also managed to stimulate the growth of the Australian dollar ahead of the RBA meeting, which will be held on June 1. It seems that market participants believe that the Central Bank of Australia, as well as the RBNZ, will leave all the parameters of monetary policy unchanged and the head of the bank will assess the prospects of the national economy in a similar tone. This is the reason why the AUD/USD pair is rising this morning.

According to the dynamics of the ICE dollar index, the US dollar remains under pressure, continuing to decline to a local low of January 3 of this year. It is likely that the indicator will fall below this level if the US employment for May, which will be published next week, will not be as impressive and will indicate that Americans are still not in a rush to go to work due to several important reasons. The first of which is the COVID-19 pandemic, which has not disappeared, and the second is the economic-destroying measures of financial support for the population, which are increasingly stimulating a parasitic lifestyle.

There will be no important economic data today. We believe that the general trend towards the US dollar's gradual weakening will continue.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair remains in a short-term upward trend and is trading above the level of 1.2240. We expect the pair to further rise to 1.2345.

The AUD/USD pair is getting support in anticipation of maintaining the previous course of the RBA monetary policy. We believe that the pair has a potential for local growth to 0.7815, and then to 0.7850.