FX.co ★ Analysis of EUR/USD on May 19. EU's inflation data did not please the markets

On the H4 chart, the wave pattern chart is still absolutely clear and does not require any additions. All movements are exactly in accordance with it. Therefore, the construction of a 3-in-3 wave presumably continues at this time, which can turn out to be extended. In addition, wave 3 of the new upward trend can also be, given the size of wave 1. In this case, we expect the quotes of the Euro currency to strongly rise in the future. A successful attempt to break through the 23.6% Fibonacci level indicates that the markets are ready to purchase the Euro. In turn, a slight departure of quotes from the reached highs during the day cannot be interpreted as an internal corrective wave. Thus, the increase in the quotes of the instrument should continue with targets located near the highs of wave 5 to 5 of the last upward trend section.

The news background for the EUR/USD pair lacked strength on Wednesday. It was the same as the day before, although the two most important indicators for any economy were released in these two days. On Tuesday, there was a report on GDP, which turned out to be negative in the first quarter, as well as a quarter earlier. The April inflation report was released the following day, which turned out to be 1.6% in annual terms as the markets had expected. It is worth noting that the inflation target for the world's largest central banks is 2%. Consequently, the Central Bank will not resort to curtailing its stimulus programs and raising interest rates until this level is reached and stable for a long period of time.

However, the same conclusion in the European Union can be drawn from the GDP indicator, which was negative for the last two quarters. Moreover, the whole current year will be focused on reaching the target values of these two indicators, and only after that it will be possible to talk about the timing of the completion of the stimulation of the economy. Now, the US is scheduled to publish the minutes of the Fed's last meeting. From this document, the markets can draw for themselves only information about the current mood among the members of the Fed's monetary committee. It is unlikely that it will contain information about the Fed's decisions that the markets do not yet know. Usually, the market do not react to these minutes. How will it be this time?

Based on the analysis, an upward trend will still form. At this time, the construction of the correctional wave 2 or b, as well as the internal wave 2 as part of the assumed 3, could have already been completed. Thus, it is suggested to buy the instrument with targets near the 23rd mark., for each MACD upward signal. There are no reasons to revise the current wave pattern yet, as it seems perfect.

The wave pattern of the upward trend section is still quite complete, five-wave form and is not going to get complex yet. But the section of the trend, which started to form immediately after it, took on a corrective and fully completed form. If the current wave pattern is correct, then the formation of a new upward trend section has begun and continues, and its two first waves have recently completed.