FX.co ★ Hot forecast for EUR/USD on May 17, 2021

At first glance, the data for retail sales and industrial production in the United States looks very impressive. Thus, the growth rate of retail sales accelerated from an incredible 29.0% to a fantastic 51.2%, which is an absolute historical record. The thing is that this is only on an annualized basis. If you look at the monthly data, there is no sign of growth. Over the month, sales have changed by 0.0%. It's all about the low base effect, since in the spring of last year in the United States there were rather tough restrictive measures related to the coronavirus pandemic, and almost all shops and businesses were simply closed. At the same time, data from the beginning of last year, when there were no quarantine measures yet, falls out of the annual statistics. The situation is similar with the industry, whose growth rates accelerated from 1.0% to 16.5%. This is certainly not a record value, but since the 50s, nothing like this has yet been observed. At the same time, in monthly terms, industrial production increased by 0.7%. So, the latest data in the United States is highly skewed by the low base effect, and it is quite difficult to rely on it, even dangerous. It is for this reason that the market ignored them. In fact, by the time they were published, the single European currency had already completed its upward movement, which is largely just a recovery from an inadequate decline following the publication of inflation data in the United States. Today, the macroeconomic calendar is essentially empty, so some kind of stagnation can be expected. Moreover, the market will prepare for the publication of the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Commission on Open Market Operations. Thus, until Wednesday, the market situation will be relatively calm.

Industrial Manufacturing (United States):

The EUR/USD currency pair showed a rather active upward interest last Friday, which led to a movement in the direction of the 1.2150 coordinate. The market has once again created a V-shaped formation, where before the update of the local high from May 11 - 1.2180, the quote did not reach a few points.

Market dynamics are showing signs of acceleration relative to price fluctuations between May 12 and 14.

Based on the current location of the quote, it will be seen that the 1.2150 / 1.2180 area negatively affects the volume of long positions in terms of their reduction, which may lead to a slowdown and, as a result, a repetition of the natural basis of April 29 and May 11.

In this situation, it can be assumed that the quote may initially acquire an amplitude within the boundaries of 1.2115 / 1.2155, but the subsequent course of the price will depend on the holding points, depending on the specified boundaries.

From the point of view of complex indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical instruments on the hourly and daily intervals have a buy signal, while the minute intervals have a variable signal * (buy / sell *), due to the deceleration stage.