FX.co ★ Forecast for EUR/USD on May 17, 2021

EUR/USD

Friday's rally pushed the EUR/USD pair back to the top on the 12th, when the euro sharply fell following the US inflation report. The likelihood of a double divergence has increased on the daily chart. It is possible for the price to move above the 1.2177 target level without reaching the upper border of the price channel (1.2238). The main scenario assumes a decline to 1.1990 from the current levels.

On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is trying to return under its own zero line, this move will increase the probability of getting the price to settle below the MACD line, below 1.2094, and this will become a signal for a further decline to 1.1900.

The price is currently in the area of uncertainty, bounded from below by the MACD line (1.2094), and from above by the target level of 1.2177. But even the price exit above 1.2177 does not become the basis for it to rise to 1.2238 due to the probable double divergence on the daily chart. We are waiting for the development of events.