FX.co ★ Trading recommendations for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on May 14, 2021

Here's the details of the economic calendar for May 13:

The focus of the economic calendar yesterday was the US statistical data, which resulted in local impulse fluctuations in the market.

The producer price index, which reflects the average change in wholesale prices determined by manufacturers at all stages of production, surged from 4.2% to 6.2%, with a forecasted growth to 5.9%.

The growth of the index is a positive factor for the national currency. The market reacted, but traders, as well as investors, are more concerned about the very rapid growth in inflation, which was published a day earlier.

Along with the index, the United States released a weekly report on the number of claims for unemployment benefits, which recorded the lowest level of initial claims since March 14, 2020.

Report details:

• The volume of initial applications for benefits fell from 507 thousand to 473 thousand against the forecast of 490 thousand.
• The volume of repeated applications for benefits fell from 3,700 thousand to 3,655 thousand, the forecast coincided.

Claims reflect the number of citizens currently unemployed and receiving unemployment benefits. This indicator reflects the state of the labor market, where the growth of the indicator negatively affects the level of consumption and economic growth.

To put it simply, an increase in the number of applications leads to a weakening of the national currency, while a decrease leads to strengthening.

The market's reaction followed a few hours after the publication of American statistics, in the form of a local strengthening of the US dollar.

Analysis of trading charts from May 13

The EUR/USD pair showed local activity yesterday, but it was concentrated within the previously established range of 1.2050/1.2106.

The main trading positions were not made, as there was no price retention outside of one or another range boundary.

In turn, the British currency managed to maintain the previously set downward interest in the market, as a result of which the quote approached the psychological level of 1.4000, where a support was eventually found.

Trading recommendations to sell the pound took place back on May 12, where positions were extended and eventually brought even more profit during the previous trading day.

Trading recommendation for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on May 14, 2021

Today, the main focus is on the US data again, where the statistics look very extraordinary due to the consequences of quarantine measures, as well as the coronavirus crisis.

Here, the US retail sales are showing an increase from 27.7% to 30.5%, and the pace of industrial production has completely accelerated from 1.0% to 19.0% (yoy).

The growth of these indicators is a positive factor for the economy and the national currency, but it is still unclear whether the dollar quote will react properly to such impressive results. There is an assumption that the US dollar will strengthen again locally, but not a full-fledged movement.

USA 12:30 Universal time - Retail Sales

USA 13:15 Universal time - Industrial production

Looking at the EUR/USD trading chart, it can be seen that there was a fairly intense sharp price growth during the start of the European session, which put the upper limit of the sideways range of 1.2050/1.2106 at risk.

If the price is held above the level of 1.2115 in a four-hour period, a reverse cycle towards the level of 1.2180 is not excluded.

Without proper fixation at the control values, the price may return to the previous amplitude of 1.2050/1.2106.

As for the GBP/USD trading chart, it shows that the pivot point of 1.4000 continues to focus on long positions, which leads to a pullback, but as long as the price does not stay above the level of 1.4085 in the H4 time frame, we can not exclude a reverse move to the level of 1.4000.